In today's Mug, Ol Pete referred to Peter Abraham's take on the CC Sweepstakes:
It has been nearly five days since the Yankees made him a record-setting offer and not one other team has stepped forward with a rebuttal. The only other offer on the table is the paltry (ha!) $100 million from Milwaukee.
The biggest thing that has bothered me between this comparison is the 6th year. The Yankees' offer is for 6 years, $140 million, whereas the Brewers is allegedly for $100 million over 5 years. I think people get caught up in the 140/100 numbers, whereas the big difference to me is the 6/5.
Right now, the Yankees are offering CC an average of $23.333 million a season, whereas the Brewers' offer is $20 million a season. In this comparison, the per-season numbers don't seem so far apart.
In fact, let's say that the Brewers respond with a 6th year for $22 million. The difference between the two offers then becomes $3 million per season. That may be a lot to me and you and the Rally Lobster, but in MLB-Land, that's about 3/5ths of a 2009 Kapler. When you're making $22 million a season, you can lose $3 million in the cushions on your couch.
This is especially on-point if you take the big guy at his word:
I loved it here. It's one of the most fun times I've had in my life. It was definitely a blessing to be traded here.
Now signing pitchers to long-term contracts is fraught with peril (see Zito, Barry). What I'm unclear about is the danger in going to a 6th year when you're already at 5 (especially when the Brewers would undoubtedly buy insurance on him). I'm assuming it's all injury risk related --- at the end of the deal, he'd still be only 33/34 years old. (And it's worth mentioning that it might be academic, as the Yankees could simply raise their offer to well past the Brewers' means.)
However, I think he truly liked playing for the Brewers, which could be a big advantage we'd have over the Yankees --- I'd go so far to say that as long as the money is close, he'd choose us. That probably won't happen so long that the difference is between $140 million and $100 million. But if we're talking $23.3 million versus $20.3 million...I think he might stick with Cream City, and pass on the Yankees' record-setting offer.
So what do you think: how big is the leap to go from the 5th year to a 6th year? Would that be enough to keep you from pursuing CC? Be sure to check out the poll, and let long-time BCB reader* Doug Melvin know what you think.
*This has not been proven to be true.