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Game Thread #10: Brewers (6-3) at Mets (4-4)

One great thing about playing the Mets is that there's no dearth of coverage of the game.  Or the opponent, anyway.  Tonight's matchup, weather permitting, is Manny Parra vs. Nelson Figueroa. 

It's Figueroa's first start in a long time, and there's a great article about him in the New York Observer.  The more diehard among you may recall that Figueroa pitched for the Crew in '02, and pretty much stunk.  If you're a BP subscriber, it's fascinating to go to his PECOTA card and read the blurbs from each year's annual at the bottom of the page.

There's also a blogosphere like no other in the National League, and no fewer than three Mets bloggers q&a'd me leading up to the weekend series:

For more preview-y goodness, check out the baseball-reference game preview, which is awesome, thorough, and something I should really be linking to in every single game thread.  While you're waiting for the game to start, you don't even need to follow all those links; there's a lot to read right here.

And finally, I haven't seen the Mets lineup yet, but using last night's starting eight, the project-a-tron says:

  • Brewers 5.3
  • Mets 4.3
  • Brewers WinExp: 55%

I had to make up some numbers for Figueroa; I decided he's a 5-inning starter with a projected ERA of 5.50.  If you knock that down to 4.50, it makes the Win Expectancy almost exactly 50%.  (By the way, you'll notice that certain run differentials don't always spit out the same Win Expectancy--that's due to home field advantage, which I haven't quite gotten my head around as it applies to expectancies that aren't 50%.)

I haven't decided yet whether I'm going to the game.  I do love my Brewers, but I don't like sitting around for hours in a rainstorm.  The staff at Shea are notorious for doing whatever it takes to get games in, so nine innings could easily turn into a soggy six-hour experience.

Go Brewers!