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Game Thread #7: Reds (4-3) at Brewers (5-1)

Admit it, you're excited: You want to see Johnny Cueto just as much as the next guy.

Of course, you'd also like to see Cueto's first drubbing.

Mr. Haudricourt has the lineups; just click here.  Gwynn is still hurting, so Gross is batting second, while everything else is as per usual, with Suppan on the mound.  The JS Blog also has an interview with Cordero.

I've kept playing with my game-prediction spreadsheet.  Here's what it considers so far, using ZiPS projections for all players:

  • OBP and SLG for all starting position players -- that, plus the starting lineups, gives us an run estimation for each offense.  (It would be nice to incorporate platoon splits, but that's a ways off.)
  • IP and RA (run average--not just earned runs) for both starters--using those, we predict how many innings the starter will last and how many runs they'll give up in that time.
  • RA for every member of both bullpens.  This is the weakest part of my model. I just average the RA's for all relievers to get a bullpen RA.  I figure the bullpen will pitch the number of innings that the starter doesn't (good assumption, that one) and use the collective RA to figure out how many runs the bullpens will allow.
  • Park factors.  ZiPS are park adjusted, so the Brewers numbers are right, but I need to adjust the Reds runs and runs allowed to Miller Park.
  • Home field advantage.  Historically, the home team wins about 54% of the time.   I do something a little bit (but not much) more sophisticated than just tacking on 4% to the home team's win expectancy.

Shove all that into a spreadsheet, find the expected run totals, and generate a win expectancy for both teams.  Today, your projected final score is:

  • Brewers 5.21
  • Reds 3.95
  • Brewers win expectancy: 65%

To which I say, "Stupid spreadsheet!  Don't you know the Cueto is the most awesome rookie pitcher ever?"  Well, ZiPS isn't ready to anoint Cueto a Hall of Famer just yet, so neither is my spreadsheet.

Go Brewers!