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Game Thread #29: Brewers (16-12) at Astros (13-16)

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It's Carlos Villanueva vs. Roy Oswalt.  Last year, that would've sounded like a mismatch, and if it still sounds like it's lopsided, it might be in the other direction.  Villa has give us two straight outings with 6+ innings and 2 ER, while Oswalt has an ERA of 5.75.

That said, I don't think it's time to talk about Oswalt being toast.  He's been unlucky in just about every possible way: very few popups (Rickie will help that), and a disproportionate number of fly balls leaving the part.  Summed up in the Hardball Times stat xFIP, Oswalt *should* have an ERA more like 3.64.  ZiPS projected 3.48, so that makes a lot more sense.

Here's the BR Game Preview.  Game time is 7:05 CT.

Project-a-tron trusts ZiPS more than a few flukish bad starts in April, so here's what it spits out:

  • Astros 4.6
  • Brewers 4.2
  • Brewers WinExp: 42.99%

Go Brewers!