It's Carlos Villanueva vs. Roy Oswalt. Last year, that would've sounded like a mismatch, and if it still sounds like it's lopsided, it might be in the other direction. Villa has give us two straight outings with 6+ innings and 2 ER, while Oswalt has an ERA of 5.75.
That said, I don't think it's time to talk about Oswalt being toast. He's been unlucky in just about every possible way: very few popups (Rickie will help that), and a disproportionate number of fly balls leaving the part. Summed up in the Hardball Times stat xFIP, Oswalt *should* have an ERA more like 3.64. ZiPS projected 3.48, so that makes a lot more sense.
Here's the BR Game Preview. Game time is 7:05 CT.
Project-a-tron trusts ZiPS more than a few flukish bad starts in April, so here's what it spits out:
- Astros 4.6
- Brewers 4.2
- Brewers WinExp: 42.99%