Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times
recently published a very useful tool: downloadable Excel spreadsheets that produce
Marcel projections for players. Marcels are basically weighted averages and are surprisingly competitive with advanced projection systems like PECOTA or ZiPS. For our purposes--predicting the most likely immediate future performance to evaluate, for instance,
whether we should get a new second baseman--Marcel will do just fine. So, let's see what we've got:
Jason Kendall
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.258 |
.339 |
.333 |
| Balance |
.259 |
.330 |
.329 |
| Total |
.258 |
.334 |
.331 |
Prince Fielder
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.270 |
.357 |
.488 |
| Balance |
.282 |
.374 |
.531 |
| Total |
.275 |
.364 |
.507 |
Rickie Weeks
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.217 |
.320 |
.367 |
| Balance |
.247 |
.357 |
.409 |
| Total |
.231 |
.335 |
.386 |
Bill Hall
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.234 |
.294 |
.431 |
| Balance |
.260 |
.326 |
.465 |
| Total |
.246 |
.308 |
.446 |
Russell Branyan
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.245 |
.331 |
.604 |
| Balance |
.236 |
.332 |
.469 |
| Total |
.239 |
.332 |
.515 |
J.J. Hardy
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.283 |
.352 |
.476 |
| Balance |
.273 |
.335 |
.448 |
| Total |
.279 |
.343 |
.463 |
Ryan Braun
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.286 |
.324 |
.549 |
| Balance |
.303 |
.354 |
.567 |
| Total |
.293 |
.337 |
.556 |
Mike Cameron
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.231 |
.320 |
.481 |
| Balance |
.246 |
.329 |
.443 |
| Total |
.240 |
.325 |
.461 |
Gabe Kapler
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.315 |
.352 |
.517 |
| Balance |
.272 |
.332 |
.425 |
| Total |
.294 |
.341 |
.471 |
Corey Hart
| Period |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Current |
.289 |
.327 |
.504 |
| Balance |
.285 |
.340 |
.496 |
| Total |
.287 |
.331 |
.501 |
Ben Sheets
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
2.85 |
123 |
109 |
108 |
28 |
1.11 |
| Balance |
3.47 |
87 |
81 |
71 |
22 |
1.18 |
| Total |
3.11 |
210 |
190 |
179 |
50 |
1.14 |
CC Sabathia
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
3.67 |
137.3 |
130 |
137 |
40 |
124 |
| Balance |
3.21 |
98 |
94 |
86 |
25 |
1.22 |
| Total |
3.48 |
235 |
224 |
223 |
65 |
1.23 |
Jeff Suppan
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
4.71 |
101.3 |
118 |
55 |
44 |
1.60 |
| Balance |
4.44 |
72 |
82 |
42 |
27 |
1.52 |
| Total |
4.60 |
173 |
200 |
97 |
71 |
1.57 |
Manny Parra
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
3.78 |
100 |
99 |
78 |
50 |
1.49 |
| Balance |
3.98 |
71 |
70 |
57 |
31 |
1.42 |
| Total |
3.86 |
171 |
169 |
135 |
81 |
1.46 |
Dave Bush
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
4.39 |
106.7 |
97 |
66 |
26 |
1.15 |
| Balance |
4.19 |
76 |
76 |
52 |
19 |
1.25 |
| Total |
4.30 |
182 |
173 |
118 |
45 |
1.19 |
Son of Clung
| Period |
ERA |
IP |
H |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
| Current |
4.16 |
75.7 |
66 |
64 |
36 |
1.35 |
| Balance |
4.53 |
54 |
51 |
40 |
24 |
1.40 |
| Total |
4.32 |
129 |
117 |
104 |
60 |
1.37 |
