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BCB Projections: Third Basemen, Closing 1B

Introduction, CA | 1B | 2B

The projections are in for the first basemen. I averaged out Fielder's totals, we'll link the rest of the projected in the spreadsheet later.

Prince Fielder

BCB: .284/.380/.547

CHONE: .286/.388/.555

Marcel: .282/.377/.530

ZiPS: .285/.388/.569

Again, we line up nicely with the rest of the projection systems. They like Prince's healthy line drive rate, though ZiPS especially has been known to overrate lefty sluggers because they naturally will have a slightly lower BABIP due to the extreme shifts. I like our chances to beat the other projections here once again.

Today we reach the only position in the entire starting lineup that has a pretty major controversy over playing time. Bill Hall and Mike Lamb are scheduled to platoon at third base, but Doug Melvin has acknowledged that Mat Gamel will compete for the job in spring training and will likely see time in the majors in 2009.

The format remains the same:

.avg/.obp/.slg (PA) Hall
.avg/.obp/.slg (PA) Lamb

.300/.350/.400 (75)  Starter last name
.270/.330/.400 (25)  Backup last name

Account for Gamel if you think he'll play in the majors at third base this year, and as always, make sure the percentage of plate appearances equals 100. I tend to think Gamel's CHONE projection is a bit too pessimistic; this is probably a result of his poor second half in which he played through an elbow injury. Don't be afraid to go to his 60 or 70th percentile projection.

We're also encountering a new challenge in our community projections today. The 50th percentile CHONE projection for Hall and Lamb aren't as useful here because we assume they'll be managed to gain the full advantage of the platoon effect. Projection systems don't account for this type of effect, so we're going to have to do some guesswork. I highly recommend using the career splits of Hall and Lamb as a baseline for the projection.

The only other real possibility for playing time I see here is Casey McGehee, unless Craig Counsell re-signs before the start of the season. I'll link his CHONE page as well.

Thanks for helping us project, once again. The link to the second basemen projection is at the top of this post, and will be open until tomorrow morning. I'll open up the shortstops and wrap up the second basemen tomorrow afternoon.

Bill Hall

2008: .225/.293/.396

2008 vLHP: .306/.371/.522

Career vLHP: .278/.355/.493

Mike Lamb

2008: .235/.276/.320

2008 vRHP: .259/.300/.343

Career vRHP: .281/.336/.422

Mat Gamel

30th 0.240 0.302 0.364
40th 0.250 0.312 0.383
50th 0.262 0.328 0.413
60th 0.271 0.340 0.435
70th 0.281 0.352 0.460

Casey McGehee