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BCB Projections: The Rotation, Closing CF

Introduction, CA | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF

Mike Cameron's projection is in.

BCB: .242/.335/.459

CHONE: .240/.331/.446

ZiPS: .246/.333/.446

The differences in slugging might be attributable to our ability to see how well Cameron slugged last year after getting out of Petco.

Yesterday I suggested we hit all of the starting pitchers in one day, and I'm convinced it's a pretty good idea. I planned to do defense and lineup time today, but I think we'll wait until a few spring training games are played to see what the lineup might look like before we do that, so by a close vote of 1-0, I decided to jump right to starting pitchers today.

Yes, I'm asking everyone to work a little harder. We'll just project the main cogs and innings, don't worry too much about replacement starters at this point. Everyone should get Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, Bush, and McClung, and Capuano is optional. Obviously, those six won't be the only starters this year, but I expect another pitcher to be added and we'll know more about the rest of the starters when the team reports. We're just going to do innings for playing time, and you don't have to have a specific total inning goal in mind. We'll average up all of these and figure out how many more starter innings we need later.

So here's the format. I'd like the innings and ERA on separate lines, just because I'm lazy and it's easier to copy into a spreadsheet this way. Use the format for the first two for all of them, the CHONE projections are linked to their names. I lack the time to format all of them in pretty tables, so you'll have to venture over to Sean Smith's site. Keep in mind that the innings projections from CHONE might be way off. Capuano comes out with a really optimistic projection, and McClung is projected as a reliever.






Capuano (if you want to)

And so on. The ERA is your true-talent estimate of ERA. It would probably be better to think of this as estimating the pitcher's FIP or even tERA. Think in terms of the pitcher's skill level. Just put the skill level on the ERA scale.

I'm going to quote what I said in the introduction in regards to estimating innings pitched:

The principle is probably easier to explain with starting pitchers, who we’ll cover later. As an example, let’s say that in situation 1, every participant thinks there’s a 60% chance Manny Parra throws 190 innings and a 40% chance he throws 150 innings. If everyone projects 190 innings, we end up with an inaccurate projection. We’re also inaccurate if we all project 150. If everyone projects closer to 170 innings, we can increase the accuracy quite a bit and lower the potential for error.

You should only project durable studs like Sabathia for more than 200 innings. There is no Brewer that anyone should project for 200, though I'm not going to make that a rule or anything. Individual creativity still applies, just keep it somewhat conservative.

We'll get the rest of the starters later, and we'll do the main relievers tomorrow, as well as wrap up the right fielders. Thanks for your help.