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On draft positioning

Last time we checked in with Andy Seiler, he had the Brewers projected to pick 12th in the 2010 June Draft. They've gone 1-3 since then to fall to 61-66, giving them a firmer grip on that spot. At present, they're still two games better than Toronto, who has the 11th spot, and a game worse than Houston, who holds pick #13.

With 35 games left to play, now seems like as good a time as any to take a look at how the Brewers can change their draft standing in the remaining month of the 2009 season. Follow the jump for the full table, but first, a few notes and disclaimers:

  • For the purpose of projections, I assumed every major league team except the Brewers would continue on their current pace. This obviously won't happen but it gives us a basic starting point.
  • Assuming teams continue on their current pace, the Brewers cannot finish with baseball's best or worst record. Going 35-0 the rest of the way would leave them at 96-66, five games back of the Yankees, who project to win 101 games. Going 0-35 would leave them at 61-101, three games better than the Nationals, who project to go 58-104. All other outcomes are possible, at least mathematically.
  • 2010 draft order will be determined by 2009 record, with 2008 record being used as a tiebreaker. Because the Brewers had baseball's sixth best record in 2008, they only have a tiebreaker advantage over five teams.
  • The Rangers (#15) and Rays (#31) will receive compensation picks in next year's draft for failing to sign this year's first round picks, so the final pick in the first round will be #32.

Follow the jump for more, and the table of outcomes.

Brewer record Draft Pick
3-32 or worse 2
5-30 or 4-31 3
6-29 4
8-27 or 7-28 5
9-26 or 10-25 6
11-24 or 12-23 9
13-22, 14-21 or 15-20 11
16-19 12
17-18 13
18-17 14
19-16 or 20-15 16
21-14 17
22-13 18
23-12 20
24-11 21
25-10, 26-9 or 27-8 22
28-7 23
29-6 or 30-5 24
31-4 26
32-3 or 33-2 27
34-1 28
35-0 30

I know this table is a confusing, jumbled up mess, so if someone has a better idea for how to display it, I'm open to suggestions.

Worth noting, though: Picks 1-16 (the first 15 picks, plus the Rangers' compensation pick) in the 2010 Draft will be protected, meaning the Brewers could not lose it as compensation for signing a Type A free agent. The Brewers will stay in the protected picks with a record of 19-16 or worse the rest of the way.

And, of course, this is not an excuse to root against the Brewers the rest of the way, just a nice silver lining to look at if they continue to play as they have lately.