If you read the Mug daily, you may have noticed occasional notes about how run scoring is down throughout the major leagues in 2010. A look at the numbers bears that out (all statistics in this post are through Monday's games).
2009 MLB: 4.61 Runs/G, 1.04 HR/G, .262/.333/.418
2010 MLB: 4.47 Runs/G, 0.93 HR/G, .259/.329/.406
It definitely looks like power and scoring are both down throughout the major leagues. Slugging, home runs, and total runs scored are all down from 2009 to 2010. One explanation, reduced use of steroids, immediately comes to mind whenever a decline in power occurs in today's game. However, if you dig slightly deeper, you can see the power drain isn't spread evenly throughout the majors:
2009 AL: 4.82 Runs/G, 1.13 HR/G, .267/.336/.428
2010 AL: 4.56 Runs/G, 0.94 HR/G, .262/.332/.409
2009 NL: 4.43 Runs/G, 0.96 HR/G, .259/.331/.409
2010 NL: 4.40 Runs/G, 0.92 HR/G, .256/.327/.402
While both leagues have seen a dip in slugging, home runs, and total runs scored, clearly the junior circuit has seen a much larger drop off. Of course, not all AL hitters have been impacted. Furthermore, looking at AL splits by age is revealing.
First, the figures for 2009:
| Split | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ages 25- | 17735 | 2506 | 4744 | 975 | 113 | 456 | 2204 | 457 | 151 | 1506 | 3456 | .267 | .328 | .412 | .740 | .307 |
| Ages 26-30 | 32186 | 4571 | 8543 | 1676 | 184 | 1163 | 4430 | 633 | 221 | 3210 | 6548 | .265 | .336 | .437 | .773 | .298 |
| Ages 31-35 | 24682 | 3467 | 6695 | 1303 | 88 | 823 | 3344 | 441 | 164 | 2559 | 4574 | .271 | .342 | .431 | .773 | .301 |
| Ages 36+ | 3362 | 394 | 801 | 177 | 3 | 118 | 459 | 10 | 6 | 419 | 731 | .238 | .325 | .398 | .723 | .270 |
Now, for 2010:
| Split | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ages 25- | 5688 | 709 | 1455 | 303 | 32 | 109 | 633 | 105 | 46 | 510 | 1235 | .256 | .319 | .378 | .697 | .307 |
| Ages 26-30 | 15422 | 2078 | 4031 | 843 | 86 | 424 | 1975 | 320 | 104 | 1513 | 2985 | .261 | .331 | .410 | .740 | .297 |
| Ages 31-35 | 9070 | 1271 | 2383 | 512 | 31 | 313 | 1251 | 146 | 62 | 938 | 1780 | .263 | .336 | .430 | .765 | .293 |
| Ages 36+ | 3063 | 388 | 838 | 164 | 7 | 75 | 373 | 54 | 25 | 325 | 489 | .274 | .346 | .405 | .751 | .303 |
While players over 30 have maintained their power, those under 30 have not. Batters 25 and under have really struggled this year.
This isn't an AL-only phenomenon. National Leaguers under 25 have seen a decline as well:
| Split | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 NL, Ages 25- | 21435 | 2933 | 5638 | 1122 | 161 | 686 | 2748 | 428 | 188 | 2116 | 4975 | .263 | .332 | .426 | .758 | .311 |
| 2010 NL, Ages 25- | 6781 | 965 | 1726 | 323 | 67 | 174 | 777 | 168 | 64 | 638 | 1644 | .255 | .321 | .399 | .720 | .310 |
You can click the View Original Table link and switch between 2009 and 2010 to see that the older hitters in the NL have kept their numbers relatively steady for 2009 to 2010.
To me, it seems the leaguewide offensive downturn can be attributed mostly to players under 30 in the American League and under 25 in the National League.
Examples are always nice. This is by no means a complete list, but here are some players in those age groups who have seen their numbers nosedive in 2010 (age in 2010 in parenthesis):
|
Adam Lind (26) 2009: 654 PA, .305/.370/.562 2010: 285 PA, .213/.277/.357 |
Gordon Beckham (23) 2009: 430 PA, .270/.347/.460 2010: 253 PA, .205/.277/.259 |
|
Asdrubal Cabrera (24) 2009: 581 PA, .308/.361/.438 2010: 149 PA, .287/.322/.368 |
Luis Valbuena (24) 2009: 398 PA, .250/.298/.416 2010: 170 PA, .167/.274/.243 |
|
Aaron Hill (28) 2009: 734 PA, .286/.330/.499 2010: 247 PA, .193/.287/.372 |
Pablo Sandoval (23) 2009: 633 PA, .330/.387/.556 2010: 290 PA, .280/.341/.433 |
|
Matt Wieters (24) 2009: 385 PA, .288/.340/.412 2010: 244 PA, .223/.287/.326 |
Adam Jones (24) 2009: 519 PA, .277/.335/.457 2010: 287 PA, .259/.287/.405 |
If you blame young players in each league for the decline in offense, the question becomes why they are struggling as a group this season. One theory out there is improved pitching. However, you would expect to see all batters struggling if that was the case. My own theory is older players have been replaced by cheaper, younger players who do not hit as well but offer more on the defensive side of the ledger, but I don't know if that alone is enough to account for the entire difference. Maybe that and some brutal "sophomore slumps" are to blame. What are your thoughts?