Ok folks, it all comes down to this...and the 61 games after it.
Follow the jump for the pitching matchup and more!
What can one say about Randy Wolf (5.20 ERA, 5.75 FIP) that hasn't already been said? As a Brewer, he's been pretty bad. His FIP would suggest he should actually be worse. He's coming off a historically bad performance on Wednesday (12 ER in 5.2 IP), and he's under contract for 2 1/2 more years.
FanGraphs says Wolf's fastball has been bad (-1.15 runs per 100) and his curveball worse (-2.50 R/100), but his slider and change have been above average. Three Reds have faced him ten times or more:
Bronson Arroyo (4.26 ERA, 4.71 FIP) is making his 21st start of the season, but his first against the Brewers. He also had a disaster start last time out, although not as bad as Wolf's: He allowed seven earned runs on six hits and three walks in 5.2 innings against the Nationals on Wednesday, striking out just one. Prior to that, though, he'd been on a very good run, averaging seven innings per start and posting a 2.73 ERA over eight outings.
Arroyo has an 88.1 mph average fastball but is throwing it just 37.1% of the time this season, relying heavily on a changeup (26.3%), slider (14.9%) and curve (13.6%). FanGraphs says all five of his pitches (including a cutter) are above average. He's been around the Central for a while, so six Brewers are pretty familiar with him:
Tonight's line-up, courtesy of Tony W.:
2B Rickie Weeks
SS Alcides Escobar
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
C George Kottaras
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Joe Inglett
LHP Randy Wolf
And in the bullpen:
Kameron Loepitched 2 innings (37 pitches) yesterday.
Enjoy the game!