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Game Thread #101: Reds (55-45) at Brewers (47-53)

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Ok folks, it all comes down to this...and the 61 games after it.

Current Series

3 game series vs Reds @ Miller Park

Cincinnati Reds
@ Milwaukee Brewers

Monday, Jul 26, 2010, 7:10 PM CDT
Miller Park

Bronson Arroyo vs Randy Wolf

Clear. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

Tue 07/27 7:10 PM CDT
Wed 07/28 1:10 PM CDT

Follow the jump for the pitching matchup and more!

What can one say about Randy Wolf (5.20 ERA, 5.75 FIP) that hasn't already been said? As a Brewer, he's been pretty bad. His FIP would suggest he should actually be worse. He's coming off a historically bad performance on Wednesday (12 ER in 5.2 IP), and he's under contract for 2 1/2 more years.

FanGraphs says Wolf's fastball has been bad (-1.15 runs per 100) and his curveball worse (-2.50 R/100), but his slider and change have been above average. Three Reds have faced him ten times or more:

Orlando Cabrera 46 .317 .370 .488 .857
Joey Votto 13 .333 .385 .417 .801
Scott Rolen 10 .375 .500 .375 .875

Bronson Arroyo (4.26 ERA, 4.71 FIP) is making his 21st start of the season, but his first against the Brewers. He also had a disaster start last time out, although not as bad as Wolf's: He allowed seven earned runs on six hits and three walks in 5.2 innings against the Nationals on Wednesday, striking out just one. Prior to that, though, he'd been on a very good run, averaging seven innings per start and posting a 2.73 ERA over eight outings.

Arroyo has an 88.1 mph average fastball but is throwing it just 37.1% of the time this season, relying heavily on a changeup (26.3%), slider (14.9%) and curve (13.6%). FanGraphs says all five of his pitches (including a cutter) are above average. He's been around the Central for a while, so six Brewers are pretty familiar with him:

Prince Fielder 41 .265 .341 .588 .930
Craig Counsell 35 .387 .457 .387 .844
Jim Edmonds 35 .290 .343 .419 .762
Ryan Braun 30 .259 .333 .444 .778
Rickie Weeks 24 .095 .208 .143 .351
Corey Hart 23 .263 .348 .263 .611

Tonight's line-up, courtesy of Tony W.:

2B Rickie Weeks
SS Alcides Escobar
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
C George Kottaras
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Joe Inglett
LHP Randy Wolf

And in the bullpen:

Kameron Loe pitched 2 innings (37 pitches) yesterday.
Trevor Hoffman pitched 1 inning (17 pitches) yesterday.
John Axford pitched 1 inning (19 pitches) Saturday.
Carlos Villanueva pitched 1 inning (12 pitches) Saturday.
Todd Coffey pitched .2 innings (22 pitches) Thursday.
Chris Capuano pitched .2 innings (6 pitches) Thursday.
David Riske pitched 1.1 innings (31 pitches) Wednesday.
Zach Braddock hasn't pitched in a week.

Enjoy the game!