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Game Thread #134: Brewers (62-71) at Phillies (76-58)

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Out of the frying pan and into the cheese steak.


Current Series

3 game series vs Phillies @ Citizens Bank Park

Milwaukee Brewers
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Friday, Sep 3, 2010, 6:05 PM CDT
Citizens Bank Park

Chris Capuano vs Cole Hamels

Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.

 

Friday's Frosty Mug

Complete Coverage >

Sat 09/04 6:05 PM CDT
Sun 09/05 12:35 PM CDT

Check out Nicole's series preview, then join us after the jump for tonight's pitching matchup, lineup and more!

Cole Hamels (3.31 ERA, 3.84 FIP) is a pretty good example of how a win-loss record can be deceiving: He's 8-10 in 2010 despite the fact that he does everything pretty well: Baseball Reference estimates he's been worth 3.6 WAR to the Phillies this season, easily the second highest on the pitching staff (behind Roy Halladay, who's in a class by himself). Hamels is sixth in the NL in both walk rate (2 per nine innings) and strikeout rate (9.1 per 9). If he has one weakness, it's the long ball: He's allowed 24 this season, the fifth most in the NL.

Hamels works in the low 90's (92 mph average fastball), and uses a changeup (22% of pitches), a curve (8.1%), and for the first time this season, a cutter (14.6%). All four pitches have been above average this year. He's facing the Brewers for the second time in 2010: On May 16, he held them to two runs on six hits over 6.2 innings, walking three and striking out three. Casey McGehee and Corey Hart took him deep in that game. Four Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Prince Fielder 21 .300 .333 .600 .933
Corey Hart 18 .278 .278 .444 .722
Rickie Weeks 18 .133 .278 .267 .544
Ryan Braun 15 .267 .267 .733 1.000

Chris Capuano (5.06 ERA, 4.20 FIP) is making his fourth start of the season, and this is the first time he's been allowed to take two consecutive turns in the rotation. He was pretty bad last time out, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks in just three innings, striking out five and giving up five home runs. He's facing the Phillies for the first time since 2006.

Capuano's fastball velocity is up this season: He's getting 87.6 mph on his average fastball, the fastest it's been since 2004. As usual, he's relying heavily on his changeup (26.1% of pitches), and, also as usual, it's his best pitch (+1.37 runs per 100 pitches). He'll also throw a fair number of sliders (16.1% of pitches), but they're getting hammered (-6.75 runs per 100). Opposing batters are helping him out a bit this season, swinging at 28.1% of his pitches outside the strike zone. For his career he's averaged a 23.1 O-Swing%.

Jimmy Rollins is the only Phillie that's seen Capuano ten times: He's 3-for-9 with a home run and a walk.

Via Anthony Witrado, here's tonight's lineup:

Rickie Weeks 2B
Corey Hart RF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Casey McGehee 3B
Lorenzo Cain CF
Alcides Escobar SS
Jonathan Lucroy C
Chris Narveson P

And in the bullpen:

Todd Coffey faced three batters (8 pitches) Wednesday, and also pitched on Tuesday.
Zach Braddock pitched .2 innings (15 pitches) Wednesday.
Jeremy Jeffress pitched 1 inning (11 pitches) Wednesday.
Mike McClendon faced two batters (6 pitches) Wednesday.
Manny Parra pitched 2 innings (32 pitches) Tuesday.
Kameron Loe pitched 2 innings (41 pitches) Monday.
Trevor Hoffman pitched .2 innings (17 pitches) Monday.
Carlos Villanueva pitched 1 inning for Nashville on Monday.
John Axford hasn't pitched since Saturday.

According to weather.com, it looks like the weather shouldn't be an issue tonight, with a game time temp of 82, a 10% chance of rain and a low of 67.

Enjoy the game!