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Todays Match Up: Brewers (Narveson) vs Twins (Pavano)

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Before the Brewers traded for Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke, there were heavy rumors that they were targeting Carl Pavano in free agency for a contract similar to that of Randy Wolf.

Now the Brewers get to face off against Pavano (5-5, 4.05).  Were he to have pitched as well as he has been, he would have likely been an improvement for the Brewers over the last couple of years, though of course not as great of an improvement as the two pitchers the Brewers ended up with.  Pavano is currently sporting a 3.89 FIP, a 4.13 tRA and a 4.21 xFIP.  He has the lowest K/9 rate of his career (3.52) if we discount his 2007 "season" where he pitched just eleven innings.  He also has a nice low 1.85 BB/9.  Pavano also pitches deep into games.  He hasn't gone fewer than seven innings in his last seven starts, over the course of which he has a 2.45 ERA.

Pavano is a ground ball pitcher and, accordingly, throws a 92 MPH sinker as often as his 92 MPH four seamer.  He'll also throw an 82 MPH changeup fairly often, and an 83 MPH slider.  Texas Leaguers also shows him throwing a splitter and a cutter on occasion.

Carl Pavano has faced three current Brewers at least ten times, though I have a feeling at least one of them won't be in the starting line up.

PA Slash Line
Mark Kotsay 23 .261/.261/.304
Yuniesky Betancourt 18 .294/.333/.353
Randy Wolf 10 .100/.100/.100

 

The Brewers will counter with Chris Narveson (4-5, 4.55), who is having perhaps the best season of his career.  The Narv-dog is currently sporting a 3.43 FIP and a 3.41 xFIP.  He has a nice 8.05 K/9 and a 3.60 BB/9.  Unlike Pavano, Narveson doesn't pitch deep into games too often, as he has gone more than six innings just four times this year so far, and more than seven once.  He went 6.2 innings in his last outing, though, when he gave up four runs on five hits and three walks to the Tampa Bay Rays.  Narveson has given up four or more runs in five of his last six starts, with the lone exception being against St. Louis when he threw eight shut out innings. 

He still has his "one bad inning" syndrome, but hopefully it won't happen today.  Narveson has never faced a current Twin more than ten times.  Hell, he's never faced a current twin more than four times.  So today will be chock full of reasonably fresh match ups. 

Lineups, courtesy of Tom H:

Twins

CF Ben Revere
2B Alexi Casilla
RF Michael Cuddyer
3B Danny Valencia
1B Luke Hughes
LF Jason Repko
SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka
C Drew Butera
RHP Carl Pavano

Brewers

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Nyjer Morgan
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
RF Corey Hart
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
C Jonathan Lucroy
LHP Chris Narveson

And in the bullpen:

Tim Dillard pitched 1 inning (20 pitches) yesterday.
Mark Difelice pitched 1 inning (12 pitches) yesterday.

Kameron Loe
pitched 1 inning (13 pitches) Friday.

John Axford pitched 1 inning (12 pitches) Friday.
Marco Estrada and Sergio Mitre last pitched on Wednesday

LaTroy Hawkins last pitched on Monday.

Rememberyour prognostikegger predictions.