clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Today's Matchup: Milwaukee (Narveson) at Houston (Myers)

Huh. It seems like this pitching duel happened pretty recently already.

Here is what I said last week:

Brett Myers (3-11, 4.66) is making the start for the Astros today. After posting a 3.13 ERA and 3.56 FIP last year, Myers signed a two year, $23MM contract. He's certainly not pitching like someone who should be making $11.5MM this year, though, as his ERA is the third highest it's been in his career and he's currently putting up a 4.91 FIP--also the third highest number of his career. His strikeout rate and walk rate are both down from his career numbers, though his HR/9 is sky high at 1.66. Were we to normalize the home run rate, his xFIP would be a much more respectable 3.93. Unfortunately for Myers and the Astros, I don't think we can expect that HR/9 to come down a whole as Myers has always given up a lot of homers over his career as shown by a career 1.30 HR/9.

Myers hasn't been good against righties this year as he's given up a .254/.307/.452 line to them but he has been downright terrible against left handed hitters to the tune of a .307/.362/.502 line. He's actually slightly better on the road, allowing a .778 OPS as opposed to an .831 OPS when pitching in Houston in 2011.

The 31 year old righty really likes to mix up his pitches as he doesn't throw anything significantly more than his other pitches. In his repertoire are a 75 MPH curveball that he throws 21% of the time, an 82 MPH slider that he throws 20% of the time, an 88 MPH cutter that he throws 20% of the time, an 88 MPH four seamer that he throws 17% of the time, an 88 MPH sinker that he throws 14% of the time, and finally am 82 MPH changeup that he throws 7% of the time. One notable thing about fangraphs pitch values for Myers is they have his fastball at a very low value--over 108 runs below average in his career and over 16 runs below average this season alone.

Myers has faced eight different Brewers at least ten times. Here's how they've fared:

PA Slash Line
Felipe Lopez 40 ..306/.359/.417
Ryan Braun 25 .280/.280/.600
Corey Hart 24 .217/.250/.391
Prince Fielder 23 .400/.478/1.050
Craig Counsell 19 .188/.316/.188
Casey McGehee 18 .222/.222/.222
Jonathan Lucroy 12 .444/.583/.778
Jerry Hairston 10 .111/.200/.111

The Brewers will counters with Chris Narveson (7-6, 4.41), who is currently sporting 3.49 FIP--better than Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum! In his last outing, against the Cubs, the Narv Dog allowed two runs in five innings. July has been pretty good to him, barring his first start this month when he gave up seven earned runs in 4.1 innings. Over his last four starts, though, Narveson has a 2.63 ERA. Hopefully he can keep it up!

Of course, not a whole lot has changed over the past week. You can find updated "at least ten PA" stats here for Narveson and here for Myers. Of course, both players have only had one start since I wrote all of that and, of course, it was that night, against one another. In that game, Myers allowed eight hits and four runs (three earned) in six innings while striking out six Milwaukee players. Narveson was slightly better though, allowing four hits and three walks in 6.2 innings as the Astros notched three runs against him. The Narve Dog also struck out four. Neither player picked up a win or loss though the Brewers ultimately won the game. Narveson now has a 4.39 ERA and a 3.59 FIP while Myers has a 4.65 ERA and a 4.76 FIP.

The Brewers are currently riding a four game winning streak against the Astros though, the last time they played in Houston, they won the first game before dropping the next two. Something to look out for today.


RF Corey Hart
CF Nyjer Morgan
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
2B Felipe Lopez
C Jonathan Lucroy
P Chris Narveson

In the bullpen:

John Axford pitched one inning (22 pitches) on Wednesday, and also pitched on Tuesday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched one inning (10 pitches) on Wednesday.
Kameron Loe pitched one inning (10 pitches) on Wednesday.
Marco Estrada, Francisco Rodriguez and Takashi Saito last pitched on Tuesday.
Tim Dillard came out of an apparent retirement to throw one inning (9 pitches) last night. See you in September, Tim!