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Mets 3, Brewers 1: Tonight's Turning Points

1) Daniel Murphy's first inning RBI single: -.103 WPA (Video)

The Mets only had two hits against Yovani Gallardo over six innings, but had already walked twice in the first inning when Daniel Murphy's single gave them their first run.

2) Taylor Green singles, takes third on fielding error in the second inning: +.100 WPA

There's a strong chance this will eventually be changed to a triple: Green hit a liner to right that got under Lucas Duda's diving attempt. The play gave the Brewers a runner on third with no one out, but they failed to score.

3) Brooks Conrad's ninth inning strikeout: -.087 WPA

The Brewers had the tying run on first with one out in the ninth but Brooks Conrad (now 0-for-14 as a Brewer) failed to advance him and struck out.

4t) Cesar Izturis' bunt fielder's choice in the second: -.077 WPA (Video)

Taylor Green was still on third with one out and the Brewers tried to bunt him home, but Cesar Izturis couldn't execute it and Green was tagged out.

4t) Taylor Green's ninth inning walk: +.077 WPA

Green was the tying run at the plate with one out in the ninth, and drew a key walk.

The next five:

6) George Kottaras' ninth inning flyout: -.071 WPA
7) Daniel Murphy's sixth inning double: -.058 WPA
8t) Ike Davis' third inning groundout: +.053 WPA
8t) Corey Hart's sixth inning strikeout: -.053 WPA
10) Brooks Conrad's second inning strikeout: -.050 WPA

And here's the win expectancy graph:

Source: FanGraphs