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Today's Matchup: Milwaukee (Peralta) at Cincinnati (Arroyo)

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The Brewers look to not get swept.

Matt Sullivan

After a rough start to his season, Wily Peralta (3-2, 5.54 ERA, 4.47 FIP) seems to have settled down a little bit. Three of his last four starts have been of the quality variety. The fourth in that set was awful, though, as he allowed six earned runs in 4.1 innings.

I'm not sure Peralta is going to be able to take that next step towards becoming a good major league pitcher until he starts striking guys out. He has sat down three or fewer batters on strikes in each of his last five starts and on the season has a 4.62 K/9. This is a guy who had double-digit K/9s a couple times in the minors. His strikeout numbers have always been up and down, but they seemed to have leveled off around 8-9 per nine innings in 2011/2012. His current rate is very unusual and is a sign that he is not fooling major league hitters at all.

Peralta has never faced a Reds hitter 10 or more times.

Opposing him n the mound today will be Bronson Arroyo (2-4, 4.30 ERA, 4.07 FIP). Speaking of pitchers who don't strike out many batters, Arroyo's K numbers have been dwindling since 2004, dropping from 7.42 K/9 at it's highest point to 4.88 K/9 at the lowest. He has improved his control each year, however, making his lower K rate more acceptable. It's not easy to draw a walk off Arroyo anymore.

Arroyo is a workhorse. He has made at least 32 starts each year for the past eight seasons and only failed to reach 200 innings once, when he pitched 199 innings in 2011. This year he is averaging over six and a half innings per start.

Arroyo has a four pitch repertoire: An 87 MPH sinker (35% pitch selection), a 76 MPH slider (22%), a 77 MPH changeup (22%), and a 70 MPH curveball (14%). Arroyo has faced six Brewers at least ten times. Here is how they have fared:

Player PA Line
Aramis Ramirez 73 .217/.260/.391
Ryan Braun 57 .269/.333/.558
Rickie Weeks 52 .170/.250/.362
Norichika Aoki 16 .267/.313/.467
Yuniesky Betancourt 15 .267/.267/.600
Carlos Gomez 12 .083/.083/.083

Lineups:

In the bullpen:

  • Mike Gonzalez pitched .2 innings (30 pitches) yesterday and also pitched Friday.
  • Brandon Kintzler pitched 1.1 innings (17 pitches) yesterday.
  • Jim Henderson pitched one inning (12 pitches) yesterday.
  • Burke Badenhop pitched two innings (26 pitches) yesterday.
  • Alfredo Figaro pitched two innings (19 pitches) Friday.
  • John Axford pitched one inning (23 pitches) Friday.
  • Mike Fiers was just recalled from Triple-A