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Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Lohse) v Reds (Bailey)

We're ready to help you get ready for the last home series before the All Star break.


We'll see if it lives up to the hype, but this is one of the more interesting pitching matchups we've seen recently.

At 7:10 tonight at Miller Park the Brewers will send reigning Brewer of the Week Kyle Lohse (3.43 ERA, 4.18 FIP) to the mound. Lohse last pitched on Wednesday, when he allowed a single run on four hits over eight innings against the Nationals. If you throw out his rain-shortened outing on June 30, he's pitched a quality start in each of his last six starts since June 1.

Lohse has allowed one walk or less in 15 of his 17 appearances this season, giving up just 1.5 free passes per nine innings. That's helped make up for the fact that his home run rate is elevated a bit at 1.3 per nine innings, as compared to 0.8 over his last three seasons as a Cardinal. Seven of Lohse's 15 home runs have come against lefty batters, but he's otherwise been great against opposite-handed hitters, holding them to a .214/.256/.374 batting line.

Lohse has faced the Reds 12 times in his career, including once earlier this season. He received a no-decision in his game against them on June 14, allowing three runs (one earned) on five hits over six innings with a walk and three strikeouts. Five current Reds have faced him ten times or more:

Jay Bruce 28 .308 .357 .615 .973
Brandon Phillips 27 .240 .259 .280 .539
Joey Votto 21 .316 .333 .421 .754
Ryan Hanigan 16 .214 .313 .286 .598
Zack Cozart 13 .200 .308 .400 .708

Meanwhile, any national attention for tonight's game will probably center around Homer Bailey (3.57 ERA, 2.67 FIP), aka Ho-Bail, who is pitching for the first time since making history on Tuesday. He threw a complete game no-hitter against the Giants six days ago, allowing just a single walk while striking out nine. He threw 109 pitches in the game.

Bailey, you've probably heard, also threw baseball's last previous no-hitter on September 28 of last season. Brooks Baseball classified 76 of the 109 pitches he threw on Tuesday as mid 90's fastballs, and roughly two thirds of those were strikes. That's roughly in line with his career averages.

The Brewers beat Bailey earlier this season, scoring six runs on eight hits against him over seven innings. Five active Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Rickie Weeks 29 .458 .552 .750 1.302
Ryan Braun 27 .360 .407 .640 1.047
Jonathan Lucroy 13 .333 .385 .333 .718
Carlos Gomez 12 .167 .167 .167 .333
Norichika Aoki 11 .300 .364 .500 .864

Tonight's lineups are as follows:

Order Reds Pos @ Brewers Pos
1 Shin-Soo Choo CF Norichika Aoki RF
2 Zack Cozart SS Jean Segura SS
3 Joey Votto 1B Carlos Gomez CF
4 Brandon Phillips 2B Jonathan Lucroy C
5 Jay Bruce RF Juan Francisco 3B
6 Todd Frazier 3B Rickie Weeks 2B
7 Chris Heisey LF Sean Halton 1B
8 Ryan Hanigan C Logan Schafer LF
9 Homer Bailey P Kyle Lohse P

And in the bullpen:

  • Brandon Kintzler pitched 1.1 innings (10 pitches) yesterday.
  • John Axford pitched one inning (12 pitches) yesterday.
  • Michael Gonzalez pitched .2 innings (13 pitches) yesterday.
  • Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (14 pitches) on Saturday.
  • Jim Henderson pitched .2 innings (14 pitches) on Saturday.
  • Tyler Thornburg and Burke Badenhop last pitched on Friday.

There are scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity in Milwaukee tonight, but it looks like they'll clear up by game time. Expect a temperature in the low 80s with light winds.