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Today's matchup: Milwaukee (Peralta) vs Cincinnati (Bailey)

Go Brewers!

Mike McGinnis

By the time the end of the season rolls around, Wily Peralta (4.30 ERA, 4.21 FIP) may be able to get his ERA under 4.00 despite a 6.35 ERA at the end of May. That's how good Peralta has been since June. Over his last 14 starts, Peralta has a 2.98 ERA and has held opponents to just a .645 OPS. He may not be striking out many still (6.18 K/9 since June 1), but he has not allowed hitters to make good contact against him.

I took a look at how Peralta has been caught differently by Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado a week ago.

Peralta has already faced four Reds hitters at ten times in his brief career:

Player PA Line
Zach Cozart 12 .167/.167/.250
Brandon Phillips 12 .091/.167/.091
Joey Votto 12 .200/.333/.200
Jay Bruce 11 .200/.273/.333

For the Reds, Homer Bailey (3.81 ERA, 3.14 FIP) will take the mound. After a hot start to the season, Bailey has cooled off some. Since May 30, he has a 4.34 ERA and has generally been not as unhittable as he had looked previously. However, he has had a couple of phenomenal starts over that span as well, including a no-hitter against the Giants on July 2 and 8.1 innings against the Padres with one unearned run.

Bailey throws five pitches: A 94 MPH four-seamer (39%), a 94 MPH two-seamer (25%), an 88 MPH slider (16%), an 86 MPH  changeup (11%), and a 79 MPH curveball (10%).

Bailey has faced five Brewers at least ten times. Here is how they have fared:

Player PA Line
Aramis Ramirez 26 .250/.385/.250
Jonathan Lucroy 16 .333/.375/.533
Norichika Aoki 15 .308/.357/.462
Carlos Gomez 15 .133/.133/.133
Juan Francisco 10 .429/.500/.857


In the Bullpen;
  • Brandon Kintzler pitched 1.2 innings (13 pitches) last night.
  • Jim Henderson pitched one inning (16 pitches) last night.
  • Rob Wooten pitched one inning (19 pitches) Friday.
  • Donovan Hand pitched 1.1 innings (24 pitches) Friday.
  • Burke Badenhop pitched one inning (6 pitches) Friday.
  • John Axford pitched one inning (16 pitches) Friday.
  • Michael Gonzalez faced two batters (12 pitches) on Wednesday.