I've had this space blocked off on my calendar for a couple of days now to "discuss possible Jean Segura extension." By now I'm sure you've heard this weekend's news that the Brewers expect to discuss a possible long term deal with their young shortstop this spring, and that they also talked about this last spring.
If you've been reading the Mug, you've heard a lot about this over the last few days. Here are some key points:
- Doug Melvin told Adam McCalvy that the Brewers would need to buy out at least a year of free agency for a deal to make sense for them. That suggests the Brewers would be looking for a six-year deal, or at least something with a club option for a sixth year.
- Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker used Alcides Escobar's extension with the Royals (four years, $10 million with club options for a fifth and sixth year) and Starlin Castro's contract with the Cubs (seven years, $60 million with a club option for an eighth year) as examples of what a deal could look like.
Segura is still two years away from being eligible for arbitration and five years away from free agency, so any long term deal would likely include some kind of "buy early discount" where Segura gets some financial security now in exchange for leaving some potential money on the table down the road. The Brewers came out pretty well giving deals like that to Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun (the first time). They didn't do as well in a similar situation with Bill Hall.
So, taking what we know into account, I'll throw out a baseline estimate for a Segura extension. I think Segura is likely worth more than Escobar was at the time of his extension, but I find it very hard to believe the Brewers would offer anything comparable to Castro's deal. Taking Segura's low service time into account, I'm estimating a framework like this:
|2019||$7 million (club option, $750k buyout)|
|Total||Five years, $16.75 million + option|
For what it's worth, that's almost $6 more in guaranteed money than the Brewers gave Jonathan Lucroy in a similar situation in March of 2012.
So what do you think? Would you be willing to offer Segura a deal like this?