This last time I brought this up was about two weeks ago when Baseball Prospectus first gave the Brewers better chances to win the division than the Cardinals. I only bring it up now because the Brewers have had a pretty ugly 7 game stretch, dropping two series in a row to the Reds and the Diamondbacks. It really sucked, but I'm seeing a lot people ready to proclaim the hot start a fluke and the season over with. "It's May 2013 all over again."
For some reason these people expect us to take this 7 game stretch more seriously than the first 28 games and I don't really get that. I will say this, that series against the Diamondbacks was about as embarrassing for the Brewers as the series where the Cardinals lost to our B-Squad was for them. I think that has a lot to do with the sudden spike in pessimism. The postseason equation has changed, to be sure, but I don't think the sky is falling yet. And hey, even if the sky is falling, the Brewers have a roof! Ba-dum-tssh.
Baseball Prospectus now has the Cardinals chances at winning the division ahead of the Brewers by 2.5%. The Brewers had a 4.5 game lead on the Cards back then and now they have a 4 game lead. When I wrote that first article, the Brewers needed to 74-66 (52.8 Win Percentage) to get to 90 wins. Now they need to go 68-59 (53.5 Win Percentage). So yeah, the needle has changed, but it's really only by a game. The main difference between now and then is the Cardinals have a better chance at getting to 90 wins and taking the NL Central (which will likely take more than 90 wins).
I'm interested to hear your thoughts. I look forward to you guys elaborating in the comments, but for this poll I just want to know if you've changed your expectations from two weeks ago.