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BCB Community Over/Unders: Adam Lind

The prized acquisition of the offseason will man the heavy side of the 1st base platoon.

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

It turns out that Adam Lind was actually the biggest piece that the Brewers acquired this offseason. In itself that's not a bad thing, but it is a weird thing.

Lind can't really hit lefties; in his career he has produced only 53% as much as an average batter against them versus 128% as much against righties.  All indications are that Jonathan Lucroy will play a lot of first base against lefties, but that still gives Lind 450-500 plate appearances on the heavy side of that platoon.

Lind has bounced around a surprising amount in production going back to his debut in 2006. Left out of the table below is the fact that he was a borderline replacement-type player from 2010 through 2012 over about 1500 plate appearances. He's had a big-time bounceback in the past two years across the board.

One thing we can be fairly certain about, however, is that his defense is not very good. By UZR, in his career he has cost his teams 95 runs compared to an average first baseman.

2013 521 .288 .357 .497 19.8 9.8 -15.5 1.8
2014 318 .321 .381 .479 15.1 8.8 -11.1 1.6
Steamer 521 .271 .338 .447 18.2 9.0 -13.5 1.3
ZiPS 447 .291 .356 .468 17.71 9.2 -2 1.6

I find myself thinking that ZiPS line is pretty optimistic. He's very capable of that hitting line when leveraged properly against righties, but mixing in some inevitable at-bats against lefties and what I think is a wildly optimistic defensive projection, i'm going with the UNDER.