/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/45903384/usa-today-8408220.0.jpg)
Pitcher contributions are a bit tougher to put a win number on than batting numbers depending on how much credit you give to a pitcher for things out of his control. The wins totals below are based on fielding-independent pitching; when they are based off of ERA, those wins numbers are 3.3 and 2.5. I think it's safe to say that the Kyle Lohse contract has worked out as well as anyone could have possibly expected.
36 year old starting pitchers are a scary type of player, but Lohse has been working with an 89ish MPH fastball for years now so there's less risk in terms of stuff dropoff-- Lohse isn't a guy who is going to begin to struggle because he can't bring the big fastball anymore.
Lohse | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR |
2013 | 198.2 | 3.35 | 4.08 | 15.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
2014 | 198.1 | 3.54 | 3.95 | 17.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
Steamer | 192.0 | 4.26 | 4.31 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 |
ZiPS | 163.1 | 3.91 | 4.22 | - | - | 1.1 |
Lohse isn't much more than an average starting pitcher at this point in his career, but that ZiPS line seems pessimistic for me. I think that's mainly because you want to build in a ton of decline for 36-year old starting pitchers in a good projection system. But I don't think Lohse fits the profile of the kind of guy in for a steep decline. I have the OVER.