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BCB Community Over/Unders: Kyle Lohse

The steady right-hander will start on opening day.

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Pitcher contributions are a bit tougher to put a win number on than batting numbers depending on how much credit you give to a pitcher for things out of his control. The wins totals below are based on fielding-independent pitching; when they are based off of ERA, those wins numbers are 3.3 and 2.5. I think it's safe to say that the Kyle Lohse contract has worked out as well as anyone could have possibly expected.

36 year old starting pitchers are a scary type of player, but Lohse has been working with an 89ish MPH fastball for years now so there's less risk in terms of stuff dropoff-- Lohse isn't a guy who is going to begin to struggle because he can't bring the big fastball anymore.

2013 198.2 3.35 4.08 15.5 4.5 2.0
2014 198.1 3.54 3.95 17.3 5.5 2.0
Steamer 192.0 4.26 4.31 16.4 5.3 1.1
ZiPS 163.1 3.91 4.22 - - 1.1

Lohse isn't much more than an average starting pitcher at this point in his career, but that ZiPS line seems pessimistic for me. I think that's mainly because you want to build in a ton of decline for 36-year old starting pitchers in a good projection system. But I don't think Lohse fits the profile of the kind of guy in for a steep decline. I have the OVER.