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BCB Community Over/Unders: Ryan Braun

It's been a bad couple of years for the former MVP, and he needs a big bounceback.

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

It's unfair to make you all pick an over/under on Ryan Braun because it all comes back to the thumb. We don't have much information yet from spring training. Projections systems still know about Braun's MVP-caliber 2011 and 2012, but they also know about the awful 2014. If the thumb has permanently affected his ability, it could be a long couple of years while the contract plays out. He showed signs of significantly altering his approach all throughout last year to compensate, and it was unsurprisingly the worst of his career. If the thumb's fixed, hopefully the approach comes back too.

2013 253 .298 .372 .453 22.1 10.7 -2.4 1.6
2014 580 .266 .324 .477 19.5 7.1 -12.8 1.2
Steamer 612 .276 .342 .475 20.1 8.4 -12.1 2.5
ZiPS 630 .287 .352 .500 18.7 8.3 -8.9 3.7

This is undoubtedly the toughest line to pick among the starting 8 position players. I want to believe but given the lingering injury concerns I take the UNDER. After last year's debacle, I think I'd be satisfied with even a 3 WAR season. But it might take a big-time over for the Brewers to contend.