clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The over/under results are in; we expect big things from the outfield

According to the BCB Community Khris Davis, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun are the best bets to beat their projections.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks for playing along, everyone! Here are the final tallies for the position players. I asked you to choose if each player would beat their projected WAR total by considering the underlying components that make up that number, which are mainly overall hitting skill and defense. Here's a summary table of the votes:

Player Over Under WAR
Lucroy 113 87 5.3
Lind 103 123 1.6
Gennett 92 93 1.9
Ramirez 107 111 1.8
Segura 66 34 2.3
Davis 142 21 1.8
Gomez 163 29 4.9
Braun 119 53 3.5

The magnitude of the arrows in this next visual only mean that a significant majority of the participants chose the Over or the Under (outside of a 10% margin). The two bars within that inconclusive range, Gennett and Ramirez, didn't get arrows, though both had more "Under" votes than "Over" votes. Of course the only only player with a red arrow is Adam Lind, who is currently sitting at .5 Fangraphs WAR after his hot opening series. I wouldn't expect that pace to continue or we're going to need a much wider y-scale on this graph.

 photo chart2.png

Additionally, here's a confidence ratio chart to give a better sense of the scale of the over/under votes. It's just the number of overs divided by the unders. That thick white bar at X=1 means that about the same amount of people chose the over as the under. These bars don't necessarily imply magnitude of beating projection-- if everyone thinks Khris Davis will beat his projection by .5, they would all vote the over-- but the breakdown is pretty interesting to me. We're expecting a big year from the outfield.

 photo chart1.png