Brewers (16-32) vs Diamondbacks (21-25) series preview

The Diamondbacks are better than the Brewers right now. That hurts. I mean, technically every single major league team is better than the Brewers right now. I can handle that in a sort of abstract way. But I have a severe distaste for the Diamondbacks so when you put it in context like that it hurts.

That being said, I don't believe the Brewers are truly a worse team than the Diamondbacks. The Brewers got off to a horrific start and then lost half their regulars. If these two teams were to stay intact for the remainder of this season I would expect the Brewers to come out with the better record. That's not going to happen though so it's anyone's guess where these two teams end up.

Arizona is currently 18th in wRC+ and is getting some solid contributions from a handful of players. Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock, Mark Trumbo, and Yasmany Tomas all have above average wRC+. But that's it.

The Diamondbacks team fWAR in pitching ranks 17th. Chase Anderson is their only starter who is doing well. Their bullpen looks already if you're only checking their FIP. Their ERA looks way worse for the most part. Brad Ziegler is the one exception.

Offensive Spotlight

In 2013 Paul Goldschmidt turned on beast mode and never turned it off. He's slashing 329/440/611 (.442 wOBA, 179 wRC+) with 12 home runs. He has a 16.5 BB% right now! The crazy thing is that while it's unlikely he keeps up this pace, it's not far off from what is realistic for him.

Pitching Match-Ups

Friday May 29, 7:10 pm CST: Jimmy Nelson vs Rubby de la Rosa

By fWAR de la Rosa has been the Diamondbacks second best pitcher. He has a 4.27 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.30 xFIP. His problem seems to be home runs. He has a 23.0 K%, 5.9 BB%, .228 BAA, and a 1.10 WHIP. Those are all good numbers. His 1.22 HR/9 is not good. Either those peripherals start dropping or that HR/9 does. I'm not sure we've seen enough of Rubby de la Rosa to know which is more likely.

He throws a fastball (93-94), slider, curveball, and change-up.

Saturday May 30, 3:10 pm CST: Kyle Lohse vs Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson has never been terribly effective but he's getting hit even hard this year. His .277 BAA is awful, but it's actually right around where he was the last two years (.271 and .275 respectively). The same can be said about his 1.46 WHIP. His 1.42 HR/9 is a lot higher than in previous years but he's never had one below 1.00.

He throws a fastball (89-90), curveball, and change-up.

Sunday May 31, 1:10 pm CST: Ty Wagner vs Chase Anderson

Ty Wagner pulled a tough match-up for his major league start. Chase Anderson is the D-backs best pitcher so far this year. He has a 2.59 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 4.03 xFIP. The reason his xFIP is so much higher is his super low 0.32 HR/9. This is not a typical thing for him so that's going to go up as the season grows longer. But his 17.1 K% seems a bit low so things may even out if they both rise.

He throws fastball (90-92), curveball, and change-up.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs