Brewers (27-47) vs Twins (39-33) series preview

The Twins are in second place in the AL Central but they're losing ground. The Brewers faced them earlier this month and took 2 out 3. They won the last game in that series but then lost their next five. In total they've gone 6-10 since the Brewers series. It's not all that surprising.

As a team they have an 89 wRC+. That's 22nd in baseball and 13th in the AL. They have only 5 players with a wRC+ above 100 and only one of them, Brian Dozier, is well above (135 wRC+). Trevor Plouffe (108) and Torii Hunter (104) are the only other regulars above league average.

The rotation isn't much better. They rank 17th in fWAR right now with a combined 3.79 ERA and 4.09 FIP. Most of their starters are outproducing their FIP which suggests they're likely to experience a negative correction at some point.

Offensive Spotlight

Brian Dozier is really the only offensive standout the Twins have. He's slashing 261/338/518 (.366 wOBA, 135 wRC+) with 14 home runs. The best thing about him is that offense is coming from the second base position, which might be the weakest offensive position in baseball right now. He has a 2.7 fWAR which ranks 4th among 2B so far this year.

Pitching Match-Ups

Friday June 26, 7:10 pm CST: Kyle Lohse vs Trevor May

Trevor May got his first taste of the bigs last year but this will be his first full season. So far he's acquitted himself well enough even if his ERA (4.03) doesn't exactly show it. His 21.0 K% and 4.8 BB% is a very nice combination. But his walk rates in the minors were always higher suggesting it should go up. His 0.73 HR/9 is fine. His problem has been giving up hits in general (.273 BAA). With his walk rate due to rise he'll have to get his BAA down or it'll be his FIP rising to match his ERA instead of the inverse.

He throws a fastball (90-94), change-up, curveball, and slider.

Saturday June 27, 1:10 pm CST: Matt Garza vs Kyle Gibson

Here's a guy whose ERA is just begging to skyrocket. He's striking batters out (15.2 K%) well below league average (20.1 K%). His 7.8 BB% is around league average (7.6%). His .249 BAA is almost exactly league average (.250). His 1.05 HR/9 is worse than league average (0.96). Yet he has a 3.35 ERA (vs a 4.46 FIP). It's likely related to his high 52.8 GB% which I do think could help him beat his FIP. Although I think his 3.35 ERA is too low.

He throws a fastball (90-92), slider, change-up, and curveball.

Sunday June 28, 1:10 pm CST: Mike Fiers vs Tommy Milone

Tommy Milone is a great name for a 1920's era gangster. That has nothing to do with anything. I just always think that whenever I see/hear his name. Anyway, he's made 8 starts for the Twins and his results (3.59 ERA) are likely better than his performance (5.06 FIP). He's actually been less effective than Kyle Gibson. His K% (13.9%) is even lower as is his BAA (.263) and HR/9 (1.51).

He throws a fastball (86-88), cutter, curveball, and change-up.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs