FanPost

Midseason Report Card

The midseason report card poll got 45 good responses, which is enough to let us have some fun. I will have some dangerous data analysis in a subsequent post, after this one lays out the main descriptives -- BCB community grades for everybody on the Brewers roster this year, compared to expectations. First though, I will turn the floor over to my research assistant, Dennis "Denny" Green, for the executive summary. Coach?

They Are Who We Thought They Were

Coding the grades A through F numerically as 2 through -2 (so a C was zero, representing the player being right on expectations), the grand mean for the entire team was 0.01. Well OK, you might say, but how are you going to treat David Goforth's time spent playing Angry Birds in the bullpen and Ryan Braun's 348 plate appearances equally? Fine, fine, let's weight the average by plate appearances for position players and batters faced for pitchers. Doing that, the weighted grand mean comes out to... -0.01. So, they are who we thought they were.

I assigned letter grades to each player based on the numerical average, putting cut-points at the halves (e.g., 1.5 and above is an A, 0.5 to 1.5 is a B, etc.). If the mode (that's the most frequently occurring grade, for those of you who spent stats class hungover) was higher or lower than the grade based on the mean, they got a plus or a minus. My university inexplicably doesn't have in-between grades, so let me tell you, getting to use these was a real treat. Getting to hand out grades in public without it being a FERPA violation is also pretty cool. And now, the grades!

A: Michael Blazek, Taylor Jungmann (highest overall mean at 1.89), Gerardo Parra

No surprises here, given these are expectations-based ratings. Everyone seemed to be dreading the fact that Jungmann was the sixth starter during spring training, but he's turned out to be so totally awesome in his several starts that he probably can't be sent back down once everyone's healthy. Blazek has been used in lower leverage situations than is probably optimal, but he's performed incredibly well. Parra's having a career year at the plate, helping keep things stable through several outfield injuries, and keeping us from having to see Logan Schafer called back up. If he's traded for anything halfway decent, this becomes an A+.

B+: Adam Lind (most positive contribution to weighted average), Francisco Rodriguez

Lind and K-Rod both came in just under 1.5, but had a plurality of A votes. Probably getting pulled down a bit by the fact that they're known quantities and were expected to perform. Lind got one C, while Frankie got three.

B: Ryan Braun, Neal Cotts, Tyler Cravy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hernan Perez, Shane Peterson, Will Smith

A mixed bag. Braun, Jeffress, and Smith are having solid seasons, but not too far off what we would've expected. Cotts is the interesting one to me in this group, landing just a touch over the B/C cut line. I kind of suspect he's getting a boost for trending upward since a terrible start to the year.

C+: None

All the C+ players in the organization are in the minors.

C: Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, David Goforth, Hector Gomez, Elian Herrera, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson, Jason Rogers, Luis Sardiñas, Jean Segura, Tyler Wagner

Goforth and Wagner are probably getting the "I don't know, C I guess" treatment here, with a combined total of 28 batters faced. Interestingly, Segura is tied for the closest to an exact C (with Wagner and H.Go) at 0.07, which I think means the community had higher expectations for him coming into the season than I would've guessed.

C-: Carlos Gomez

One of the reasons I'm not super-hot on the idea of trading Go Go is that I think they'd be selling low, which is reflected in this grade. Hopefully his second half is back to where he's been the last couple years, and if he'd traded it's in the offseason for a better return.

D+: Juan Centeno, Martin Maldonado, Rob Wooten

Centeno should probably be the first guy off the 40-man next time they need to make such a move, right? I haven't seen enough of the Sky Sox to say for sure, but it appears he's the worst catcher on that roster. But hey, tied for the best on the Brewers by this measure.

D: Jonathan Broxton, Scooter Gennett, Luis Jimenez, Jonathan Lucroy, Wily Peralta, Aramis Ramirez, Tyler Thornburg

Comparing this bunch and the "B" group you can see the crux of the Brewers' problem this year. That group has one regular starter. This group has three, plus a starting pitcher, plus the season-opening setup man.

D-: Brandon Kintzler, Logan Schafer

Just enough pity votes to pull the mean up over F territory. Kintzler actually got one B, and Schafer had eight people apparently expecting him to put up a 51 wRC+.

F: Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse (lowest overall average at -1.89, most negative contribution to weighted average)

The other crux of the problem. Lohse got five Ds and 40 Fs. Garza actually picked up two Cs for his wretched first half, which I assume were from Eric Sogard and his wife.

Data shenanigans in a separate weekend post. You will need a graphing calculator for that one.