Brewers (58-75) @ Reds (55-77) series preview

The Brewers and the Reds recently played each other. In fact it's only been three games since the two teams faced off. In that series the Brewers took 2 out of 3 after which they swept the Pirates. Still the Brewers are only 2.5 games up on the Reds. This is still very much a battle for the basement in the NL Central.

Nothing has really changed since the last series. Except perhaps the Brewers standings in the race for best draft position. After winning 5 out of their last 6 the Brewers have jumped/fallen to the 7th worst record in baseball or the 7th overall draft position in the 2016 MLB Draft. The A's are 6th have a game separated from the Brewers. Reds are 5th. The Rockies are 4th with 3 games separating them from Milwaukee.

It seems unlikely the Brewers can catch any of the teams in position for a top 3 pick in next year's draft. The Marlins in third are separated by 3.5 games. The second place Braves are separated from the Brewers by 4.5 games. And the worst team in baseball, the Phillies, have 5.5 games between them and the Brewers.

A top 5 pick still seems within reach for the Brewers. They could jump into that spot this series if things go poorly for them. Or well depending on your perspective. My conclusion last series was the Brewers had an advantaged based on a surging offense and better starters. That is my conclusion this series as well. The Reds starters are not very good.

Offensive Spotlight

I talked about Joey Votto last time. Now I want to talk about Todd Frazier. Half way through the season Todd Frazier was on a MVP track. He was right there in the discussion with Bryce Harper. His second half has been a disaster though. In it he's hitting 219/262/376. That's compared to his 284/337/585 in the first half. I'm not sure what's going on but he's convinced me he's too good to continue this slump.

Pitching Match-Ups

Friday September 4, 6:10 pm CST: Matt Garza vs Keyvius Sampson

Sampson: 28.0 IP, 18.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, .308 BAA, 1.79 WHIP, 1.29 HR/9, 6.43 ERA, 4.61 FIP

He did start against the Brewers last series. He went 3.2 IP allowing 7 hits and 6 runs (5 earned). He throws a fastball (92-93), slider, curveball, change-up.

Saturday September 5, 12:10 pm CST: Wily Peralta vs John Lamb

Lamb: 22.1 IP, 30.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, .300 BAA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.61 HR/9, 5.24 ERA, 3.68 FIP

Lamb also faced the Brewers last series. He went 5 innings allowing 2 runs while striking out 8 batters. He gave up 5 hits and walked none. He throws a fastball (91-92), cutter, change-up, curveball.

Sunday September 6, 12:10 pm CST: Jimmy Nelson vs Michael Lorenzen

Lorenzen: 95.1 IP, 16.2 K%, 12.5 BB%, .276 BAA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.51 HR/9, 5.66 ERA, 5.75 FIP

Lorenzen did not face the Brewers last series. He did face them earlier this year though. His first start of the season was against the Brewers. He went 5 innings allowing 3 runs. All runs were solo home runs. He throws a fastball (93-95), slider, curveball, and change-up.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs