When Brewers’ GM David Stearns signed Chris Carter in the off season, fans on BCB looked at his numbers for his 3.5 seasons of full-time play and agreed that we would be just fine if he could just repeat those numbers. He did, at a remarkably consistent rate, and we have voted him #6 on the MVBrewers list for his efforts.
Here is a partial list of Carter’s 2016 numbers, followed by his career numbers through 2016:
- 2016 Plate Appearances: 644; Career: 2645
- 2016 Walk Percentage: 11.8%; Career: 11.6%
- 2016 Strikeout Percentage: 32.0%; Career: 33.1%
- 2016 Homerun Percentage: 6.4%; Career: 5.7%
- 2016 BB/K/HR Percentage: 50.1%; Career: 50.4%
These are the things that Chris Carter does. While his seasons have peaks and valleys, they end up with eerily similar numbers. Playing in Miller Park for half of his games allowed him (along with his incredible power for such an easy swing) to tie with Nolan Arenado for the NL lead in homeruns and games played. He solidified the first base position, somewhat of a carousel in recent years for Milwaukee, with his steady play.
And his play at first was exactly what we should have expected, too! His fielding percentage in 2016 was .992; his career number is now .991. His UZR rating was -5.7; his career number is -7.1. Inside Edge fielding says that he made 97.9% of his routine opportunity plays in 2016; his career number is 97.4%.
Fangraphs says that Chris played to a value of $7.1 million in 2016; the Brewers paid him $3 million after he got his reached his contract incentives. Statistically, he was a bargain.
Carter’s easy-going presence and every-day availability were important with the young Brewers. Having a steady regular with homerun potential in the four and five spots in the line-up at first base made one position easy for manager Craig Counsell...the only position like that on the team. Ryan Braun, the winner at #1 MVBrewer, was close, but he missed time with a few injuries and needed some regular days off at other times.
It is likely that Chris Carter will be back with the Brewers in 2017, and he will likely make more than he did this season. Through arbitration he could very well end up getting more than his value of $7.1 million; it seems reasonable to expect him to be signed before it gets that far for somewhere between $7 million and $10 million.
So it is likely that Carter will be paid almost exactly correctly in 2017, and that we will again see a re-run of his previous major league seasons. And that’s all right by me.
Then again, maybe he’ll make just a little more regular contact, and set a Brewer record with around 55 homers...
Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs