1-4 is bad. It doesn't feel as bad when they win the last one...and do it by knocking the crap out of the ball (which is, 80% of the time, the only way they CAN win), but it is still bad. Of course, Junior Guerra is coming up to change that metric. Please direct all Fan Club mail to Kyle Lesniewski.
TOP PITCHING STORY
In games not started by Jimmy Nelson (GNSBJN) this week, Brewer pitchers had a WHIP of 2.12, an ERA of 6.17, walked 26 in 35 innings, allowed 8 homers in those 35 innings, and earned (?) the only win of the week. The Braves are bad. Very bad. But they might not be bad enough to hold off the Brewers for that first pick. You know, it's really hard to watch this, even knowing that it was coming (at least to some degree). But imagine, if you will, being a fan of the Twins or Astros. They have WORSE RECORDS THAN THE BREWERS. I suspect they feel much like we did last year as April ended. Like, "Wow. It's a month in and now what do we do? We've been mathematically eliminated."
HONORABLE MENTION: Jimmy had another very good start. And he didn't allow a homer. Now he is rewarded with a start against the Angels' Jered Weaver. But at least for once every five starts we have hope. And with Junior's farm career over, maybe we're up to 40%.
TOP HITTING STORY
Let's focus on two guys that are doing their jobs. Kirk Neuwenhuis hasn't been the choice of the franchise to start in center, but he has produced better than anyone else out there. He's hitting .282; slugging .436 , OPSing .785, has scored 8 times and driven in 9. He has played adequate defense. If they are going to win games they need to score many, many runs. Kirk needs to play.
Hernan Perez has done his job, too. He took his removal from the 40 man roster and played his way back to the team with Scoot's injury. SSS, but he has hit since he came up in spot duty... .375 with a 1.125 OPS. The guy seems to be turning into a valuable asset. I like Colin Walsh, and think he needs at bats, but it's hard to not get Hernan out there. As Craig Counsell pointed out today, the starting pitching has necessitated lots of double switches, so he will continue to get into games. Nicely done, Hernan.
HONORABLE MENTION: Chris Carter's OPS is 1.026. He's going to hit 40 homers this year. Of course, he might not hit the last 20 for the Brewers. But a great signing by David Stearns.
I'm going to go all heretical here. Is it crazy to wonder what the Brewers could get for Josh Hader in a trade right now?
COMMENT OF THE WEEK:
I'm not the most analytics oriented guy on here, but Kyle's article on using cFIP as a predictor of future performance caught my interest. I thought rluzinski's response - and the discussion after - enhanced my understanding of what this was all about. Thanks to all.
Come On Now
I appreciate that cFIP strips away the strongest luck component (BIP results) and makes other good adjustments, but there is still a limit to the value of any metric when you are talking about very small sample sizes. cFIP is not a projection, it is an estimator of performance over a certain period of time. To begin to call these projections, you would have to regress them towards the player’s preseason projection (by a significant amount). Considering half those guys you listed have single digit IP this year, you might as well ignore their cFIP numbers, with respect to projecting expected performance going forward.
The Brewers currently have a 5.65 team ERA and have given up almost 6 runs/game; common sense tells us that it very likely to improve. BP projects the Brewers to give up about 4.5 runs per game for the remainder of 2016. Maybe that is a little optimistic but it is a far cry from the current 6 runs per game.
What these cFIP numbers DO tell us is that the Brewers pitching staff has been awful so far, and have earned their awfulness.