BCB Mailbag 27: Remember “Pee Your Pants for the Brewers?”

This season feels like a dream, right? Our beloved local nine is on a five game winning streak, sit at 49-40, have a 4.5 game lead in the National League Central, and are guaranteed to be in first place when the 2nd half of the season begins after the All-Star break next week. So let’s talk about them Milwaukee Brewers!

roguejim asks:

Who is the second-half #2017BrewersAce?

I’m going to go with Jimmy Nelson. I feel like there hasn’t been enough talk about just how truly excellent he’s been this season. Here’s how he ranks among qualified pitchers:

Innings Pitched: 104.0 (t-29)
K/9: 9.69 (18)
BB/9: 2.16 (15)
Ground Ball rate: 49.3% (14)
ERA: 3.20 (14)
FIP: 3.12 (8)
DRA: 3.24 (19)
DRA-: 69 (19)
cFIP-: 82 (11)

Nelson appears to be really coming into his own this season and right now, he’s pitching like an ace. Nothing in his statistical profile or with his current mechanics gives the indication that regression is coming, so hopefully the Brewers can count on Nelson to lead their rotation into the playoffs during the season’s 2nd half.

The Dane asks:

Anyone else fondly remember peeyourpantsforthebrewers.com?

Somehow I still got my (now) wife to marry me after I made good on my pledge when we made the playoffs in 2008.

Ha, I remember that site. Apparently it still exists right here on the internet! The list of folks who signed up doesn’t seem to load anymore, but I will admit that I was one of those who put my name down (and I made good on my pledge in 2008). Hard to believe that site was created a decade ago this year. Those post-Doug Melvin rebuild Brewer teams were sure a lot of fun, but hopefully the results that we are witnessing of the latest rebuilding effort lead by Melvin and David Stearns will yield more than two playoff berths and one NLCS appearance in the coming years (not that I’m complaining - 2011 was amazing).

nullacct asks:

If I hit 100 home runs and strike out 500 times in one season am I the best or worst hitter of all time?

Somewhere in the middle. They say 600 plate appearances is roughly a full-season’s worth, so we’ll assume this hypothetical player took 600 turns at the dish and in that sample, accrued 100 hits, all home runs, no walks, no hit by pitches, no sacrifices or sac flies, along with 500 strikeouts. That’d come to a triple slash of .167/.167/.667, or an OPS of .834. The average MLB OPS this season is .763, so you’d have a rough OPS+ somewhere around 110 or so, without accounting for park adjustments and such.

krieden asks:

Which fast food restaurant

has the greatest discrepancy between quality of food you see on commercials versus what you get? Which one has the least discrepancy?

I think Wendy’s might have the biggest discrepancy. Don’t get me wrong, their food is fine. But in my experience it never quite looks as appetizing through the drive-thru as it does on the commercials.

Least discrepancy? Maybe KFC. I haven’t gotten a bad batch of chicken from there, and I’m a sucker for that $5 fill-up famous bowl meal. I just went through the one on HWY 100 and National over by my house the other day. Dank as f***.

jgeisler95 asks:

Re: your tweet from earlier today about checking in on Stroman

I’d like to hear more about that. How much does Stroman have left on his deal and what’s he getting paid? What do you think it would take to get him? I suppose pretty much any package would have to start with Ray or Isan Diaz, or maybe both?

Idk, I’d just like to hear your take on it, Kyle. Maybe this would be a good topic for an article.

Stroman, 26, was arbitration eligible for the first time as a Super 2 player last winter. He’s making $3.4 mil this season and will have three additional years of club control via arbitration after this one. Stroman hasn’t pitched like an “ace” per se, but he’s been quite an effective pitcher in the big leagues with a 3.80 ERA/3.51 FIP/3.48 DRA across 467.0 innings pitched. He missed most of 2015 with a torn ACL, but hasn’t really had any arm issues so far during his career. His fastball velocity has increased each of the last two seasons and is averaging 93.6 MPH this season. Durability going forward may be the biggest question for Stroman, as he’s only 5’8” and 180 lbs, though if the Brewers were to acquire him they’d only need him to hold up through his age-29 season before he hits free agency. If the Jays do make him available, I’m certain there’d be plenty of suitors given the years of cheap control over his prime-age seasons and the possibility of even further upside. Corey Ray is probably what the team would try to offer as a centerpiece, and they’d probably have to add someone in the Erceg/Diaz vein and maybe a top-30 level arm like Ponce or Diplan to the deal. That might not even be enough, honestly, but with minor league depth as strong as Milwaukee’s and a lineup full of controllable talent at the big league level, a deal of that magnitude might be worth it. Given the state of the system, making a large acquisition like Stroman or another controllable starter wouldn’t come close to “mortgaging the future.”

Thanks for the fun inquiries this time around, y’all! If you see me at Summerfest today, feel free to come say hi. I got free tickets through a local radio station and will be going with the wife and baby Rosie. It’ll be the first time I’ve been in several years.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus