This week's polling lesson is about non-response bias. The community (N = 39) turned out to the tracking poll at its lowest rate of the year, barely clearing 50% of the responses it got in the previous week. I feel like it's a safe assumption this is due in part to me mostly being absent from BCB, and not pimping the poll. Another factor may be the continuing bad performances put up by the Brewers, which could be diminishing people's interest in BCB in general. Game threads don't seem to be shrinking too much, so I'm not sure how big an influence this is. At any rate, given both these things, the marginal participators who fell off the poll this week are likely to be more negative in their evaluations than the continuing participators are. As a result, we see some numbers improving a bit even though the team continues to stink. That is not reflected in Craig Counsell's numbers, which hit their season low for total approval this week; it's clear he's getting significant blame for the Brewers' post-break woes. However, evaluations of David Stearns went up this week, putting him in the middle of the range he's floated through for the last couple months. Win total expectations are up, and playoff expectations are up just a tick. What is noteworthy is that in the last month the big spike of expecting a postseason berth in 2017 all but disappeared, and it's also somewhat surprising to me that a near-majority want the Brewers to make an acquisition in August. Depending on what happens this weekend, I may poll that in more depth on Monday.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Craig Counsell is doing as the manager of the Brewers?
Wk 19 Wk 18 Wk 17 Wk 16 Wk 15 Wk 14 Wk 13 Wk 12 Strongly approve 15% 13% 20% 12% 30% 17% 15% 16% Approve 51% 59% 63% 77% 65% 71% 68% 68% Disapprove 13% 12% 12% 2% 1% 5% 7% 4% Strongly disapprove 5% 3% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 4% Undecided 15% 13% 4% 6% 3% 6% 8% 9%
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job David Stearns is doing as the general manager of the Brewers?
Wk 19 Wk 18 Wk 17 Wk 16 Wk 15 Wk 14 Wk 13 Wk 12 Strongly approve 54% 49% 51% 50% 72% 60% 54% 36% Approve 44% 48% 47% 42% 26% 40% 45% 64% Disapprove 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% Strongly disapprove 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0%
3. How many games do you expect the Brewers to win in the 2017 regular season?
Wk 19 Wk 18 Wk 17 Wk 16 Wk 15 Wk 14 Wk 13 Wk 12 65 or less 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 66 to 70 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 71 to 75 0% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 76 to 80 13% 25% 18% 10% 6% 34% 41% 46% 81 to 85 74% 67% 73% 65% 47% 45% 49% 46% 85 to 90 13% 6% 8% 21% 41% 17% 5% 2% 91 or more 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
4. What percent chance do you give the Brewers of making the postseason this year?
Wk 19 Wk 18 Wk 17 Wk 16 Wk 15 Wk 14 Wk 13 Wk 12 Less than 5 5% 9% 6% 4% 1% 8% 5% 7% 5 to 9 13% 19% 6% 2% 2% 6% 9% 7% 10 to 20 49% 45% 45% 27% 13% 28% 42% 52% More than 20 33% 28% 43% 67% 85% 58% 43% 34% ---- Mean 18% 17% 22% 34% 46% 28% 23% 19%
5. Do you expect Ryan Braun to be traded during the 2017 season?
Aug Jul Jun May Apr Yes 0% 5% 0% 23% 16% No 95% 94% 93% 68% 80% Undecided 5% 2% 7% 9% 4%
6. When do you think the Brewers will next make the postseason?
Aug Jul Jun May Apr 2017 5% 23% 2% 2% 0% 2018 59% 39% 56% 33% 16% 2019 33% 35% 40% 54% 53% 2020 3% 3% 2% 7% 24% 2021 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 2022 or later 0% 0% 0% 2% 5%
7. How confident are you that Zach Davies has regained his 2016 form? (Week 4: "can regain")
Wk 19 Wk 4
Not at all confident (1) 0% 2%
(2) 0% 25%
(3) 28% 49%
(4) 56% 19%
Very confident (5) 15% 5%
8. Do you approve or disapprove of returning Keon Broxton to the everyday CF starting position for the Brewers?
Strongly approve 15% Approve 31% Disapprove 18% Strongly disapprove 13% Undecided 23%
9. Should the Brewers seek to make any acquisitions during August's waiver trade period?
Yes 49% No 36% Undecided 15%
10. What is the highest level you think Keston Huira should play at in 2017?
A (Wisconsin) 41% A+ (Carolina) 39% AA (Biloxi) 18% AAA (Colorado Springs) 3% MLB (Milwaukee) 0%
