Comparing the possible starting pitcher targets for the Milwaukee Brewers

There’s still plenty of time to make an addition before the season begins.

By Kyle Lesniewski@Kyle_Lesniewski Feb 12, 2018, 9:00am CST

Pitchers and catchers report to Maryvale Baseball Park this week, marking the beginning of Spring Training and the 2018 Major League Baseball season. But the Milwaukee Brewers aren’t done building their roster for the upcoming season, as it was reported over the weekend that David Stearns and his front office seem “intent” on adding to their starting rotation before the start of the season.

Starting pitching has been discussed throughout offseason as the top priority for the Milwaukee Brewers and the franchise has been connected to a myriad of different free agent and trade targets throughout the winter. The purpose of this post is to put all of those pitchers together for comparison’s sake. There are nearly 20 arms that have been connected to our local nine, whether it be through reported interest or being mentioned or suggested as a possibility. Here they are:

Top-tier free agents:

Jake Arrieta (age 32)

Middle-tier free agents:

Alex Cobb (age 30)
Lance Lynn (age 31)

Buy-low free agents:

Chris Tillman (age 30)
Jeremy Hellickson (age 31)
Andrew Cashner (age 31)

Trade targets with 3 or more years of control:

Chris Archer (age 29)
Michael Fulmer (age 25)
Danny Salazar (age 28)
Mike Clevinger (age 27)
Trevor Bauer (age 27)
Danny Duffy (age 29)
Dan Straily (age 29)
Jharel Cotton (age 26)
Jordan Zimmermann (age 32)

Trade targets with 2 or fewer years of control:

Collin McHugh (age 31)
Jake Odorizzi (age 28)
Patrick Corbin (age 28)

Pitching Targets: Career-to-date

Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR	DRA-	WARP
Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR	DRA-	WARP
Chris Archer	162	160	967	9.72	2.94	0.99	0.295	72.6 %	45.7 %	11.9 %	3.63	3.46	18	74	21.7
Alex Cobb	115	115	700	7.33	2.62	0.84	0.287	74.8 %	54.0 %	12.1 %	3.5	3.68	10.5	74	15.8
Michael Fulmer	51	51	323.2	6.84	2.28	0.81	0.271	72.0 %	49.2 %	10.0 %	3.45	3.71	6.6	76	7
Danny Salazar	108	104	587.1	10.51	3.22	1.12	0.31	75.0 %	41.3 %	12.6 %	3.82	3.56	10.9	79	11.7
Jake Arrieta	197	191	1161	8.29	3.12	0.84	0.268	72.0 %	48.1 %	10.9 %	3.57	3.64	21.2	82	21.4
Jake Odorizzi	129	126	705.1	8.2	2.96	1.29	0.269	75.6 %	33.7 %	11.1 %	3.83	4.23	7.4	91	9.8
Jordan Zimmermann	226	225	1359.1	7.1	1.93	0.97	0.299	73.0 %	41.7 %	9.7 %	3.76	3.69	22.7	92	18.3
Lance Lynn	183	161	977.2	8.46	3.4	0.79	0.297	76.5 %	44.3 %	9.1 %	3.38	3.64	14.9	92	12.8
Mike Clevinger	44	31	174.2	9.64	4.59	1.08	0.278	76.7 %	39.0 %	12.4 %	3.76	4.16	2.5	93	2.2
Collin McHugh	117	111	653.2	8.19	2.49	1.03	0.311	73.1 %	41.6 %	10.7 %	4.08	3.76	10.7	94	7.9
Jeremy Hellickson	204	197	1139	6.59	2.73	1.3	0.269	73.7 %	38.8 %	11.7 %	4.12	4.51	9.6	99	11.3
Trevor Bauer	132	123	728.2	8.71	3.68	1.1	0.301	72.7 %	42.7 %	12.0 %	4.36	4.15	8.8	100	6.9
Andrew Cashner	230	137	893	6.99	3.22	0.87	0.29	71.1 %	49.0 %	10.4 %	3.8	3.99	9.2	103	6.6
Danny Duffy	158	130	769.1	7.84	3.18	0.98	0.292	75.7 %	37.3 %	9.1 %	3.73	3.98	10.6	103	6
Patrick Corbin	139	121	745.2	7.86	2.69	1.11	0.312	72.4 %	49.0 %	13.8 %	4.12	3.96	9.6	105	4.7
Dan Straily	119	109	633.1	7.8	3.38	1.44	0.264	74.9 %	34.1 %	11.8 %	4.25	4.72	4.3	108	3.4
Chris Tillman	203	198	1118.1	6.71	3.37	1.27	0.283	72.9 %	39.9 %	11.8 %	4.43	4.66	9.4	115	1.8
Jharel Cotton	29	29	158.1	7.28	3.24	1.82	0.265	66.8 %	37.1 %	14.3 %	4.95	5.32	0.7	142	-2

Pitching Targets: 2017 stats

Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR	DRA-	WARP
Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	fWAR	DRA-	WARP
Chris Archer	34	34	201	11.15	2.69	1.21	0.325	71.3 %	42.0 %	14.1 %	4.07	3.4	4.6	70	5.1
Michael Fulmer	25	25	164.2	6.23	2.19	0.71	0.273	65.6 %	49.2 %	8.8 %	3.83	3.67	3.5	75	3.7
Danny Salazar	23	19	103	12.67	3.84	1.22	0.343	74.1 %	39.2 %	16.1 %	4.28	3.48	2.2	75	2.3
Collin McHugh	12	12	63.1	8.81	2.84	0.99	0.311	77.7 %	32.8 %	8.6 %	3.55	3.82	1.1	79	1.3
Mike Clevinger	27	21	121.2	10.13	4.44	0.96	0.273	79.7 %	39.5 %	11.9 %	3.11	3.85	2.2	82	2.3
Danny Duffy	24	24	146.1	8	2.52	0.8	0.309	71.3 %	39.5 %	7.6 %	3.81	3.46	3.4	82	2.8
Alex Cobb	29	29	179.1	6.42	2.21	1.1	0.282	75.7 %	47.8 %	13.0 %	3.66	4.16	2.4	86	3
Jake Arrieta	30	30	168.1	8.71	2.94	1.23	0.279	72.8 %	45.1 %	14.0 %	3.53	4.16	2.4	90	2.5
Dan Straily	33	33	181.2	8.42	2.97	1.54	0.288	76.4 %	34.2 %	13.0 %	4.26	4.58	2	95	2.2
Lance Lynn	33	33	186.1	7.39	3.77	1.3	0.244	79.0 %	44.0 %	14.2 %	3.43	4.82	1.4	96	2.1
Trevor Bauer	32	31	176.1	10	3.06	1.28	0.337	76.8 %	46.4 %	16.1 %	4.19	3.88	3.2	97	1.9
Patrick Corbin	33	32	189.2	8.45	2.89	1.23	0.326	74.3 %	50.4 %	15.3 %	4.03	4.08	3	97	2
Jeremy Hellickson	30	30	164	5.27	2.58	1.92	0.246	66.3 %	34.9 %	15.1 %	5.43	5.77	0.2	98	1.7
Jake Odorizzi	28	28	143.1	7.97	3.83	1.88	0.227	72.5 %	30.6 %	15.5 %	4.14	5.43	0.1	100	1.4
Andrew Cashner	28	28	166.2	4.64	3.46	0.81	0.266	74.0 %	48.6 %	8.6 %	3.4	4.61	1.9	102	1.4
Jordan Zimmermann	29	29	160	5.79	2.48	1.63	0.33	67.2 %	33.2 %	12.5 %	6.08	5.18	1.1	134	-1.3
Jharel Cotton	24	24	129	7.33	3.7	1.95	0.279	65.7 %	37.0 %	15.3 %	5.58	5.68	0	151	-2.2
Chris Tillman	24	19	93	6.1	4.94	2.32	0.334	64.2 %	39.5 %	20.0 %	7.84	6.93	-1	169	-2.5

Pitching Targets: 2018 PECOTA projections

Pitcher	IP	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	WARP
Pitcher	IP	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	WARP
Chris Archer	176.1	3.23	1.19	208	3.5
Danny Salazar	132.2	3.14	1.25	165	2.7
Jake Arrieta	147.1	3.69	1.13	150	2.6
Trevor Bauer	165.1	3.69	1.33	169	2.4
Patrick Corbin	168	3.99	1.34	160	1.8
Michael Fulmer	180	4.44	1.33	150	1.8
Danny Duffy	136.2	4.4	1.33	116	1.2
Mike Clevinger	91.1	4.07	1.36	92	0.9
Lance Lynn	121	4.47	1.35	108	0.8
Collin McHugh	73.1	4.16	1.34	67	0.7
Andrew Cashner	130	5.27	1.53	92	0.6
Jake Odorizzi	150	4.45	1.3	140	0.6
Dan Straily	176.2	4.59	1.31	164	0.6
Alex Cobb	128.1	4.92	1.38	100	0.4
Jharel Cotton	115	4.87	1.33	113	0.4
Chris Tillman	106.2	5.73	1.53	79	-0.1
Jeremy Hellickson	131.1	5.82	1.47	96	-0.3
Jordan Zimmerann	189	5.43	1.5	129	-0.4

So, who do you want Slingin’ David Stearns and the Brewers to go out and get?

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs