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Hello, friends.
It’s been a couple weeks now since I last checked in with the 2018 CHace projections for Brewers hitters. Since then, pitchers and catchers have reported, spring training games began, Keon Broxton hit a bomb and none of the things that highheat19 said would happen have happened.
Sure, Nate Orf and Radhames Liz are running rampant on ball fields in Arizona, but what’s the fun in actual baseball when you can just run some more numbers that may or may not do a good job at predicting the future?
2018 Milwaukee pitching projections
| Player | Team | Role | GS | IP | QS | SV | ERA | H | R | ER | HR | SO | BB | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | BAA | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Role | GS | IP | QS | SV | ERA | H | R | ER | HR | SO | BB | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | BAA | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | SP | 29 | 175 | 15 | 0 | 4.12 | 186 | 87 | 80 | 20 | 129 | 49 | 6.63 | 2.54 | 1.04 | 17.20% | 6.60% | 0.265 | 1.343 | 0.304 | 71.40% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | MIL | SP | 28 | 157 | 13 | 0 | 4.17 | 154 | 79 | 73 | 18 | 124 | 65 | 7.11 | 3.71 | 1.06 | 18.20% | 9.50% | 0.249 | 1.392 | 0.29 | 72.20% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | SP | 27 | 154 | 12 | 0 | 4.32 | 153 | 81 | 74 | 24 | 142 | 53 | 8.28 | 3.08 | 1.39 | 21.50% | 8.00% | 0.253 | 1.337 | 0.298 | 72.60% |
| Brent Suter | MIL | SP/RP | 11 | 98 | 4 | 0 | 4.44 | 107 | 53 | 48 | 13 | 72 | 30 | 6.62 | 2.73 | 1.18 | 17.00% | 7.00% | 0.271 | 1.393 | 0.307 | 70.80% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | SP | 17 | 96 | 6 | 0 | 4.41 | 98 | 51 | 47 | 16 | 85 | 28 | 7.99 | 2.6 | 1.54 | 20.90% | 11.40% | 0.258 | 1.31 | 0.297 | 72.10% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | SP | 15 | 80 | 7 | 0 | 3.75 | 75 | 36 | 33 | 8 | 76 | 29 | 8.55 | 3.22 | 0.94 | 22.30% | 8.40% | 0.241 | 1.298 | 0.3 | 72.90% |
| Josh Hader | MIL | RP | 0 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 3.48 | 53 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 99 | 32 | 12.73 | 4.11 | 1.18 | 33.80% | 10.90% | 0.202 | 1.209 | 0.295 | 75.70% |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | SP | 14 | 68 | 4 | 0 | 4.47 | 73 | 37 | 34 | 9 | 53 | 23 | 6.97 | 3.01 | 1.21 | 17.80% | 7.70% | 0.266 | 1.402 | 0.305 | 71.00% |
| Jacob Barnes | MIL | RP | 0 | 67 | 0 | 3 | 3.53 | 57 | 29 | 26 | 7 | 75 | 29 | 10.03 | 3.84 | 0.89 | 26.40% | 10.10% | 0.226 | 1.283 | 0.298 | 74.30% |
| Corey Knebel | MIL | RP | 0 | 65 | 0 | 35 | 3.26 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 92 | 29 | 12.71 | 4.05 | 1.01 | 34.20% | 10.90% | 0.203 | 1.197 | 0.299 | 77.20% |
| Matt Albers | MIL | RP | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 4.24 | 64 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 49 | 22 | 7.09 | 3.19 | 1.09 | 0.182 | 0.082 | 0.259 | 1.382 | 0.3 | 71.60% |
| Jeremy Jeffress | MIL | RP | 0 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 3.99 | 60 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 51 | 26 | 7.57 | 3.8 | 0.78 | 19.30% | 9.70% | 0.252 | 1.413 | 0.305 | 71.90% |
| Oliver Drake | MIL | RP | 0 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 3.84 | 53 | 27 | 25 | 7 | 62 | 23 | 9.58 | 3.62 | 1.02 | 0.251 | 0.095 | 0.24 | 1.322 | 0.305 | 73.70% |
| Boone Logan | MIL | RP | 0 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 3.35 | 36 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 55 | 19 | 11.3 | 3.81 | 0.89 | 30.00% | 10.10% | 0.216 | 1.237 | 0.303 | 74.80% |
| Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 5.21 | 45 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 29 | 18 | 6.46 | 4 | 1.39 | 16.00% | 9.90% | 0.279 | 1.57 | 0.308 | 69.40% |
| Aaron Wilkerson | MIL | SP | 7 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 4.59 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 30 | 12 | 7.57 | 2.99 | 1.47 | 19.50% | 7.70% | 0.264 | 1.382 | 0.301 | 70.90% |
| Wade Miley | MIL | SP/RP | 4 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 4.48 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7.14 | 4.09 | 1.01 | 18.00% | 10.30% | 0.261 | 1.487 | 0.304 | 71.00% |
| Tyler Webb | MIL | RP | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 4.14 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 9.31 | 3.9 | 1.18 | 24.10% | 10.10% | 0.242 | 1.368 | 0.301 | 73.20% |
| JJ Hoover | MIL | RP | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4.34 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 9.83 | 5.01 | 1.25 | 24.90% | 12.70% | 0.231 | 1.441 | 0.292 | 74.90% |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | SP | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4.33 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 7.33 | 3.49 | 1.11 | 18.70% | 8.90% | 0.258 | 1.409 | 0.301 | 71.60% |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | SP | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4.76 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 9.11 | 5.46 | 1.26 | 22.50% | 13.50% | 0.243 | 1.552 | 0.299 | 71.90% |
| Michael Brady | MIL | RP | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4.73 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 6.89 | 1.76 | 1.79 | 18.00% | 4.60% | 0.275 | 1.309 | 0.3 | 71.30% |
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | SP | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4.38 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7.53 | 3.61 | 1.17 | 19.20% | 9.20% | 0.256 | 1.412 | 0.299 | 71.70% |
| Taylor Williams | MIL | RP | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4.22 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 8.88 | 3.89 | 1.2 | 22.80% | 10.00% | 0.244 | 1.382 | 0.299 | 72.80% |
First things first: you may disagree with the games started/inning pitched totals, which is understandable at this point. There’s still one month until Opening Day (and then six months after that). You may think that the Brewers will send Junior Guerra packing; I don’t see it that way.
Just for reference: This is projecting a Anderson-Davies-Chacin-Guerra-Suter rotation and Knebel-Barnes-Hader-Jeffress-Albers-Logan-Gallardo-Drake bullpen when camp breaks.
A bullpen combo of Corey Knebel (3.26 ERA), Jacob Barnes (3.53 ERA), Josh Hader (3.48 ERA), Boone Logan (3.35 ERA) and Jeremy Jeffress (3.99 ERA) is certainly one of the team’s strengths. Oliver Drake also quietly sneaks in with a 3.84 ERA and 25.1 K%.
Zach Davies projects to be atop the starting rotation until Jimmy Nelson returns and the game of labrum roulette begins.
CHace pins the Brewers for 720 runs allowed.
Going back to the Brewers hitting projections, CHace is projecting 768 runs.
That’s a projected win-loss record of 86-76.