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2018 CHace projections for Milwaukee Brewers pitchers

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Also within: the Brewers will win how many games?

MLB: Spring Training-Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Hello, friends.

It’s been a couple weeks now since I last checked in with the 2018 CHace projections for Brewers hitters. Since then, pitchers and catchers have reported, spring training games began, Keon Broxton hit a bomb and none of the things that highheat19 said would happen have happened.

Sure, Nate Orf and Radhames Liz are running rampant on ball fields in Arizona, but what’s the fun in actual baseball when you can just run some more numbers that may or may not do a good job at predicting the future?

2018 Milwaukee pitching projections

Player Team Role GS IP QS SV ERA H R ER HR SO BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB% BAA WHIP BABIP LOB%
Player Team Role GS IP QS SV ERA H R ER HR SO BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB% BAA WHIP BABIP LOB%
Zach Davies MIL SP 29 175 15 0 4.12 186 87 80 20 129 49 6.63 2.54 1.04 17.20% 6.60% 0.265 1.343 0.304 71.40%
Jhoulys Chacin MIL SP 28 157 13 0 4.17 154 79 73 18 124 65 7.11 3.71 1.06 18.20% 9.50% 0.249 1.392 0.29 72.20%
Chase Anderson MIL SP 27 154 12 0 4.32 153 81 74 24 142 53 8.28 3.08 1.39 21.50% 8.00% 0.253 1.337 0.298 72.60%
Brent Suter MIL SP/RP 11 98 4 0 4.44 107 53 48 13 72 30 6.62 2.73 1.18 17.00% 7.00% 0.271 1.393 0.307 70.80%
Junior Guerra MIL SP 17 96 6 0 4.41 98 51 47 16 85 28 7.99 2.6 1.54 20.90% 11.40% 0.258 1.31 0.297 72.10%
Jimmy Nelson MIL SP 15 80 7 0 3.75 75 36 33 8 76 29 8.55 3.22 0.94 22.30% 8.40% 0.241 1.298 0.3 72.90%
Josh Hader MIL RP 0 70 0 2 3.48 53 29 27 9 99 32 12.73 4.11 1.18 33.80% 10.90% 0.202 1.209 0.295 75.70%
Brandon Woodruff MIL SP 14 68 4 0 4.47 73 37 34 9 53 23 6.97 3.01 1.21 17.80% 7.70% 0.266 1.402 0.305 71.00%
Jacob Barnes MIL RP 0 67 0 3 3.53 57 29 26 7 75 29 10.03 3.84 0.89 26.40% 10.10% 0.226 1.283 0.298 74.30%
Corey Knebel MIL RP 0 65 0 35 3.26 49 26 24 7 92 29 12.71 4.05 1.01 34.20% 10.90% 0.203 1.197 0.299 77.20%
Matt Albers MIL RP 0 62 0 0 4.24 64 32 29 8 49 22 7.09 3.19 1.09 0.182 0.082 0.259 1.382 0.3 71.60%
Jeremy Jeffress MIL RP 0 61 0 1 3.99 60 30 27 5 51 26 7.57 3.8 0.78 19.30% 9.70% 0.252 1.413 0.305 71.90%
Oliver Drake MIL RP 0 58 0 0 3.84 53 27 25 7 62 23 9.58 3.62 1.02 0.251 0.095 0.24 1.322 0.305 73.70%
Boone Logan MIL RP 0 44 0 0 3.35 36 18 16 4 55 19 11.3 3.81 0.89 30.00% 10.10% 0.216 1.237 0.303 74.80%
Yovani Gallardo MIL SP 2 40 0 0 5.21 45 25 23 6 29 18 6.46 4 1.39 16.00% 9.90% 0.279 1.57 0.308 69.40%
Aaron Wilkerson MIL SP 7 36 2 0 4.59 38 20 18 6 30 12 7.57 2.99 1.47 19.50% 7.70% 0.264 1.382 0.301 70.90%
Wade Miley MIL SP/RP 4 21 1 0 4.48 22 11 10 2 17 10 7.14 4.09 1.01 18.00% 10.30% 0.261 1.487 0.304 71.00%
Tyler Webb MIL RP 0 19 0 0 4.14 18 10 9 2 20 8 9.31 3.9 1.18 24.10% 10.10% 0.242 1.368 0.301 73.20%
JJ Hoover MIL RP 0 15 0 0 4.34 13 8 7 2 16 8 9.83 5.01 1.25 24.90% 12.70% 0.231 1.441 0.292 74.90%
Adrian Houser MIL SP 3 14 1 0 4.33 14 7 7 2 11 5 7.33 3.49 1.11 18.70% 8.90% 0.258 1.409 0.301 71.60%
Freddy Peralta MIL SP 3 14 1 0 4.76 13 8 7 2 14 8 9.11 5.46 1.26 22.50% 13.50% 0.243 1.552 0.299 71.90%
Michael Brady MIL RP 0 12 0 0 4.73 13 7 6 2 9 2 6.89 1.76 1.79 18.00% 4.60% 0.275 1.309 0.3 71.30%
Corbin Burnes MIL SP 2 9 1 0 4.38 9 5 4 1 8 4 7.53 3.61 1.17 19.20% 9.20% 0.256 1.412 0.299 71.70%
Taylor Williams MIL RP 0 9 0 0 4.22 9 5 4 1 9 4 8.88 3.89 1.2 22.80% 10.00% 0.244 1.382 0.299 72.80%

First things first: you may disagree with the games started/inning pitched totals, which is understandable at this point. There’s still one month until Opening Day (and then six months after that). You may think that the Brewers will send Junior Guerra packing; I don’t see it that way.

Just for reference: This is projecting a Anderson-Davies-Chacin-Guerra-Suter rotation and Knebel-Barnes-Hader-Jeffress-Albers-Logan-Gallardo-Drake bullpen when camp breaks.

A bullpen combo of Corey Knebel (3.26 ERA), Jacob Barnes (3.53 ERA), Josh Hader (3.48 ERA), Boone Logan (3.35 ERA) and Jeremy Jeffress (3.99 ERA) is certainly one of the team’s strengths. Oliver Drake also quietly sneaks in with a 3.84 ERA and 25.1 K%.

Zach Davies projects to be atop the starting rotation until Jimmy Nelson returns and the game of labrum roulette begins.

CHace pins the Brewers for 720 runs allowed.

Going back to the Brewers hitting projections, CHace is projecting 768 runs.

That’s a projected win-loss record of 86-76.