The top 100 lists just keep on coming! Today we have another data-based projection from FanGraphs using KATOH. KATOH is a WAR forecast for a player’s first six MLB seasons. It uses offensive and defensive analytics, age, and other data to compile a projection for performance. Here’s how it breaks down for the Brewers:
8. Trent Grisham, OF 10.1 WAR
77. Corbin Burnes, RHP 4.4 WAR
83. Brandon Woodruff, RHP 4.3 WAR
95. Freddy Peralta, RHP 4.1 WAR
100. Mauricio Dubon, SS 4.0 WAR
It’s worth noting that KATOH does not consider future value. Given the data that is available, the Grisham projection is pretty high. Grisham -- formerly Trent Clark -- only ranked on two reputable top 100 lists last year with Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law. The youngster has progressed quickly through the system but has not shown the eye-popping stat line some would hope for. He does have great zone awareness and takes a lot of walks. His bat was one of the highest projected tools in the entire 2015 amateur draft. Could this be a breakout year like 2017 was for Monte?
Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff land in disappointing situations but understandable ones considering the table doesn’t account for future value. It’s likely that the current forms of Peralta, Burnes and Woodruff without growth wouldn’t find much success in a major league rotation or bullpen. However, all project to have better futures when growth is considered.
As for Dubon, the 4 WAR points to his projection as a future utility player. Many have projected the speedy infielder won’t find the field as an everyday starter. Without regular playing time, it’s hard to imagine him amassing substantial WAR numbers.