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How often will each starter take the mound assuming the Brewers skip the 5th starter as often as possible?


There was some discussion this weekend about how the Brewers set their rotation and whether starting Davies against STL was more important than slotting him in as the #2 or #3 starter. That discussion got me thinking about how the Brewers could maximize starts for their top pitchers while also maximizing the amount of fresh arms available in the bullpen, so I looked at the first half of the season (up to the All Star break) and mapped out the rotation.

Assumptions

1) Anderson starts every 5th day without fail.

2) Davies starts every 5th day, unless Anderson's start interrupts his schedule. In that case, Davies would start on the 6th day and bump everyone else down

3) Chacin is the 3rd priority. He also starts every 5th day, unless conflicted by Anderson / Davies.

4) Suter starts as often as possible, but gets bumped if needed

5) Woodruff starts only when needed. If he experiences a long gap between starts, he can be sent down to AAA for a reliever or simply moved to the bullpen.

Starts

Chase Anderson: 22 starts in the first half.

3/29 at SD, 4/3 vs STL, 4/8 vs CHC, 4/13 at NYM, 4/18 vs CIN, 4/24 at KC, 4/29 at CHC, 5/4 vs PIT, 5/9 vs CLE, 5/14 at AZ, 5/19 at MIN, 5/24 vs NYM, 5/29 vs STL, 6/3 at CHW, 6/8 at PHI, 6/13 vs CHC, 6/18 at PIT, 6/23 vs STL, 6/28, 7/3 at CIN, 7/8 vs MIN, 7/13 at PIT

11 vs Division Opponents

7 vs 2017 Playoff Teams

11 at home and 11 on the road

Zach Davies: 20 starts in the first half

4/2 vs STL, 4/7 vs CHC, 4/14 at NYM, 4/19 vs MIA, 4/25 at KC, 4/30 at CIN, 5/5 vs PIT, 5/10 at COL, 5/15 at AZ, 5/20 at MIN, 5/25 vs NYM, 5/30 vs STL, 6/5 at CLE, 6/10 at PHI, 6/15 vs PHI, 6/20 at PIT, 6/26 vs KC, 7/1 at CIN, 7/6 vs ATL, 7/11 at MIA

7 vs Division Opponents

5 vs 2017 Playoff Teams

9 at home and 11 on the road

Jhoulys Chacin: 21 starts in the first half

3/30 at SD, 4/4 vs STL, 4/9 at STL, 4/15 at NYM, 4/20 vs MIA, 4/26 at CHC, 5/1 at CIN, 5/6 vs PIT, 5/11 at COL, 5/16 at AZ, 5/21 vs AZ, 5/26 at NYM, 6/1 at CHW, 6/6 at CLE, 6/11 vs CHC, 6/16 vs PHI, 6/21 vs STL, 6/27 vs KC, 7/2 vs MIN, 7/7 vs ATL, 7/12 at PIT

7 vs Division Opponents

7 vs 2017 Playoff Teams

11 at home and 10 on the road

Brent Suter: 20 starts in the first half

3/31 at SD, 4/5 vs CHC, 4/10 at STL, 4/16 vs CIN, 4/21 vs MIA, 4/27 at CHC, 5/2 at CIN, 5/8 vs CLE, 5/13 at COL, 5/18 at MIN, 5/23 vs AZ, 5/28 vs STL, 6/2 at CWS, 6/9 at PHI, 6/17 vs PHI, 6/22 vs STL, 6/29 at CIN, 7/4 vs MIN, 7/9 at MIA, 7/14 at PIT

9 vs Division Opponents

7 vs 2017 Playoff Teams

10 at home and 10 on the road

Brandon Woodruff: 15 starts in the first half

4/6 vs CHC, 4/11 at STL, 4/17 vs CIN, 4/22 vs MIA, 4/28 at CHC, 5/12 at COL, 5/22 vs AZ, 5/27 vs NYM, 6/12 vs CHC, 6/19 at PIT, 6/24 vs STL, 6/30 at CIN, 7/5 vs ATL, 7/10 at MIA, 7/15 at PIT

9 vs Division Opponents

5 vs 2017 Playoff Teams

8 at home 7 on the road

Off Days: 11 in the first half

4/1, 4/12, 4/23, 5/3, 5/7, 5/17, 5/31, 6/4, 6/7, 6/14, 6/25

Conclusions

The difference between the first starter and the 4th is a matter of only 2 starts even pushing back Suter as often as possible.

Davies and Anderson get the most starts on the road, but no pitcher has an extreme difference between home and road starts

Suter, Chacin, and Anderson all start against playoff teams 7 times. Davies and Woodruff start against playoff teams only 5 times

60% of Woodruff's starts come against division opponents which might present a risk as he would be facing mostly teams that are familiar with him. Anderson starts against the most division opponents, while Davies starts against the fewest.

There are 3 separate instances where the Brewers will not need a 5th starter for 10 day stretches (4/28-5/12, 5/12-5/22, 5/27-6/12) that would allow the Brewers to send Woodruff to the minors and call up a fresh reliever. Woodruff could then stay on his start schedule and come back up without missing a start in the bigs.