FanPost

Some Names to Ponder Before the Rule 5 Draft

Today, I’m taking a look at some of the more intriguing names eligible for the Rule 5 draft and who the Brewers may want to pursue. It’s important to remember that most teams get their players in this draft through trades with the teams holding the top selections, so draft position is not as important as the MLB Amateur Draft held every year in June. The level listed after their name is the highest MiLB level they’ve achieve to date in their career.

With all of the holes on the Brewers current roster, the Rule 5 looks like a way to potentially fill one. A player selected will need to be rostered for the entire season, so even players with minor league options remaining will be locked into a 26-man spot.

Here are the players I found that peaked my interest for one reason or another. It may have been fit, a solid 2019 season or simply my feelings they have a skill set that would allow them to stick on a big league roster. It’s worth keeping in mind, practically all Rule 5 selections are long-shots but every once and a while you land a Josh Hamilton or Dan Uggla without having to give up anything.

Roberto Ramos – 1B, COL (AAA): Ramos might be the most advanced hitter available in the Rule 5, as he has an incredible productive AAA season under his belt where he hit .309/.400/.580 with 30 HRs, 27 doubles and 105 RBI. And before you question whether or not his numbers are inflated due to the change in ball at the AAA level last year, keep in mind he hit 32 dingers in AA the year before. He’ll be 25 years old when the season starts, bats left-handed and looks like a perfect fit for a team like the Brewers who have a hole at the 1B spot, particularly one who hits from the left side. Fangraphs rates Ramos’ power as his best tool (70), but his overall ranking is depressed by concerns over his hit tool and lack of base-running or defensive value. Ramos finished 4th among AAA hitters in average exit velocity with a minimum of 200 balls in play at 90.4 mph and was the only name among the top 7 to not get called up to the big leagues last season. The power is very real, but there are concerns over his defense and he’s slower than molasses in a Wisconsin January. Those concerns were enough for a team without a great long-term solution at 1B like the Rockies to leave him unprotected. But if the Brewers are looking for a direct replacement for Eric Thames on a league minimum salary with three MiLB options remaining, Ramos looks like a solid target.

Seuly Matias – OF, KC (A+): Matias might have even more raw power than Ramos, but he’s a much riskier bet to be MLB ready. Matias was ranked as the #52 best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2019 season, but he had a Corey Ray-like showing at A+ with a .148/.259/.307 in just 57 games. But Matias was among the most prolific HR hitting players in the minors in 2018 and probably would have come out tops if not for a freak injury where he cut his finger while getting off a bus (ahem, Jonathan Lucroy would like a word). Of course, his prodigious power comes at a cost his K-rate checked in at 44% in 2019. It’s hard to see a team rolling the dice on Matias in his age 21 season for a full big league campaign and certainly not one like the Brewers who claim they are still looking to compete. But it’s hard to argue the high ceiling a player like Matias carries and he would probably move into their #2 or #3 spot in their organizational prospect rankings if added.

Sterling Sharp – RHP, WAS (AA): Okay, I admit. There’s a little 90’s Packer nostalgia at work here. I mean… come on. Sterling Sharp?!? But he’s not just on this list because of his name. Sharp missed a bunh of time in 2019 due to an oblique injury, but came back to show very well in the Arizona Fall League with a 1.50 ERA, 0.917 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 6 starts covering 24 innings. While not an elite strikeout artist, Sharp does have some of the best groundball rates in all of minor league baseball and he rarely gives up homers with just one long-ball surrendered in 82.2 innings last season. He’s regarded as the best pure athlete in Washington’s farm system and he had multiple offers to play college basketball before deciding to pitch at Eastern Michigan instead. He’s probably, at best, a back-end starter due to his lack of velocity but the ability to keep the ball in the park and repeat his funky delivery gives him a chance to be an effective starter or a multi-inning bullpen piece as soon as 2020. If the GB% translates to MLB, I see a very good possibility of Sharp sticking on an MLB roster in the bullpen. And I feel like for some reason he’d be a fan-favorite in Wisconsin….

Eli White – SS/2B/CF, TEX (AAA): White has great speed and the defensive chops to play SS in the big leagues. He also played collegiate ball at Clemson, giving our beloved color TV analyst plenty to talk about during his at bats. Even though he’s now 25 years old and his ceiling appears to be somewhat limited, White has shown an ability to get on base in the minors and hit for a bit of power. He’s traditionally carried a high BABIP, likely due to his 60-grade speed, and when you couple that with a good command of the strike zone and defensive versatility one can see how White could end up on an MLB roster as a utility player. The fear that his career high home run total (14) in AAA last year was aided by the change in baseball is very real, so it’s unwise to bank on him ever turning into a 20-25 HR type player. But if you’re looking for a reserve player who can get himself into a game as a pinch hitter, pinch runner or defensive substitution, White just might be your guy. The fact he bats right handed hurts his chances of being a solution for the Brewers given the presence of fellow righties Keston Hiura, Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias. But White might be one of the better ‘fits’ for a contending roster on this list.

Jose Rojas – 3B/1B/2B, LAA (AAA): Another LH hitting corner bat in the vein of Ramos, Rojas dominated AAA pitching last season with a .293/.362/.577 slash, 31 HRs and 39 doubles. He’s capable of playing 3B and 2B, but he’s definitely not a great defender at either spot. He’s also the oldest player on this list at 26 and the fact he broke out in AAA with the rabbit ball at an advanced age might give GM David Stearns a bit of pause. Still, the LH bat would play up in Miller Park and the defensive versatility is nice. All things equal, I’d go with Ramos who is younger and had the more impressive exit velocity numbers but Rojas could be an option as more of a reserve player.

Jordan Sheffield – RHP, LAD (AA): Another athletic righty who could be on the move is Sheffield. The former first round pick moved into a bullpen role this year at AA and it was a mixed bag. The 12.1 K/9 shows his ceiling, but the 7.0 BB/9 is concerning to say the least. Still, Sheffield managed to post a 3.27 ERA over 55.0 innings, which represents a massive improvement over his 2018 campaign at A+. His fastball/curveball combo is solid, but he has failed to develop the third pitch which would allow him to slide into an MLB rotation. Given his control problems, it’s pretty difficult to imagine an MLB team being able to deploy him effectively in a bullpen role in 2020. Still, the strikeout rates have always been there for Sheffield and if a team could solve the issue of repeatable mechanics, you could theoretically have an elite bullpen arm. Long shot to stick on an MLB roster and at age 25, he’s likely safe from selection. But based on pedigree, he might get a look or two.

Ka’ai Tom – OF, CLE (AAA): Sad about the Brewers trading Trent Grisham? Need a new left-handed hitting OF prospect to get excited about as the future in LF? Tom might be your guy. First off, his real first name is "Blaze" so I think he has all kinds of meme-ability upside. Unfortunately, his foot speed and namesake don’t line up very well. But he has proven to have above average plate discipline so far in his minor league career with a .360 OBP and an 11% walk rate. He popped 23 HRs in 2019 across AA and AAA, but also added 27 doubles and 10 triples. His power breakout was similar to Grisham’s as his SLG jumped from .399 in 2018 at AA to .532 in 2019. Actually, the more I dug into Tom the more I thought of Grisham. Grish obviously had an otherworldly AAA season, but when I look at their career numbers I see two players with similar career paths – except Tom is older and came out of college ball. Still, in a difference of just 60 career PAs, Tom’s .270/.360/.444 slash line looks incredibly close to Grisham’s .255/.376/.415 numbers and Tom has been a tick better at avoiding strikeouts (19.5% vs 21.5%). Ben Gamel already being on the roster as a LH hitting reserve OF likely does him no favors, but Tom is at the age and has the plate discipline to make the jump from AAA to MLB. Another player who seems like he has a high probability to stick on an MLB roster but not nearly as high ceiling as some of the other names out there.

Wander Javier – SS, MIN (A): Want to take a real gamble on getting a future star in the Rule 5? Javier is your man. At 20 years old, he’s raw and will give you next to nothing at the big league level this season besides pinch running and late-inning defense. But his ceiling is probably the highest of any player on this list. Fangraphs had Javier as the Twins 5th best prospect mid-2019 and even with some injuries and inconsistency early on in his career, it’s hard to argue against his upside. He’s got a good frame and should add power as he ages, but offensively he’s likely two years removed from being MLB viable. Still, Javier likely becomes the Brewers top prospect if he’s drafted by virtue of Milwaukee’s farm system being so bad. But starting his service time clock through a rule 5 selection is less than ideal. The Twins are banking on the fact no team will take a 20 year old player so rough around the edges and stash them for a full season. I’d probably take that bet too, but if a team were to poach him they might end up with a franchise altering steal in 2-3 years’ time.

Michael Gettys – CF, SD (AAA): Gettys has been a personal favorite of mine for a few years and it’s hard not to be excited about (some of) his tools. FG has him with a 70-grade Arm, 60-grade Speed and 55-Raw Power. In his age 23 season at AAA, he broke out (like practically everyone else last year) with a .256/.305/.517 slash, 31 HRs and 29 doubles. He’s a defense-first CF with power upside, but he’s never going to be a high OBP guy. He had 12 outfield assists on opposing base-runners dumb enough to run on his cannon for a right arm last year which raised his career total to 78 in 641 games. Local legend Brett Phillips only managed 64 career OF assists in 722 games, which is certainly no knock on Phillips. The point is, Gettys can shut down an opposing team’s running game from any OF position and he can run down balls with the best of them in CF. If a team believes the power is real (and that’s a tough sell based on the 2019 AAA environment) Gettys makes a lot of sense for someone. He’s a superior defender to Ben Gamel at all three OF positions and is more of a base stealing and power threat. But there is significant swing and miss in his game so he’ll need to hit for power to keep his offense viable.

Griffin Jax – RHP, MIN (AAA): Jax is another pitcher in the mold of Sharp, but he’s already reached AAA so maybe there’s a bit more certainty about him making the jump. He throws a low 90s fastball with sink and a decent change-up, but his calling card might be his plus-control. With only 27 walks in 127.1 innings last season, Jax’s ability to avoid free passes is something that should allow him to function in an MLB bullpen or as a back-end starter. He doesn’t get as many grounders nor strikeout as many batters as Sharp, but after being limited early in his pro career due to military commitments it’s hard not to like the results he’s put up in 2018-19 across A+, AA and AAA. He’s a safer play vs Sharp due to being more advanced and boasting the plus command, but Sharp definitely has the higher ceiling and is more likely to stick as a starter. Jax is a name to watch on draft day though, because he really does have the look of a guy who can step in and give an MLB team innings on Day 1. If you're not sure the guy can play a full season in MLB, it's really not worth taking the risk.

Ljay Newsome – RHP, SEA (AAA): I’ll be shocked if Newsome doesn’t get selected, frankly. Among all MiLB pitchers who tossed 120 IP last season, Newsome finished 6th in K-BB% at 24.5% and the lowest walk rate of any pitcher, period. His strikeout numbers did fall off as Seattle moved him up levels rather aggressively, but his ERA at AA still ticked in at 2.77 across 9 starts. His 5.2 IP at AAA aren’t enough to read into, but the fact he reached AAA as a 22 year old drafted in the 26th round back in 2015 is rather impressive. Fangraphs has him as only a 35+ prospect, but reports are that his velocity ticked up in 2019 and it remains to be seen if scouts will be encouraged by that to go along with his ridiculous command. A little velocity can go a long way in prospect evaluation, especially if it comes without sacrificing control. Entering his age 23 season, he could stick in a bullpen and still provide 5 years of team control with MiLB options to find himself in either a bullpen or rotation picture. He’s likely not as MLB ready as some of the other names on this list, but teams are always impressed with players who have demonstrated the ability to repeat their mechanics at a young age. The Brewers might not be the best fit based on wanting to compete in 2020, but Newsome has the look of a selection in the vein of Luis Perdomo or Dylan Covey from years back.

So that’s my list. It’s certainly not comprehensive, as there are many other interesting names out there. Not all of these guys would make perfect sense for the Brewers in 2020, but there are a few fits that could work if things break right. In terms of potential 2020 impact, I think Ramos is the clear front runner. He fits an area of need and has a track record of success in the minors. I think he could be a LH version of Jesus Aguilar and given our gaping hole at 1B, it might be worth the chance. Rojas is very interesting as well based on need and 2019 performance but I trust the exit velos on Ramos more than just looking at the slash lines from AAA.

Any other names you think the Brewers should be targeting? Do you even want Milwaukee to roll the dice on the Rule 5 this year?