The Miami Marlins have been, predictably, the worst team in the National League to this point in the season.
But before everyone has a collective meltdown when the Brewers lose a game to them this week -- and it will likely happen, as sweeps are rare, no matter how bad the opposing team is -- it’s important to note that the Marlins have actually won 11 of their past 16 games, including taking 2 of 3 from playoff contender San Diego.
Of course, the Marlins only had 10 wins before that, but the point is there are no automatic sweeps.
With that said, the Marlins deserve every bit of their league-worst standing. They’re hitting .233/.293/.341 as a team. That’s the worst team OPS in the majors, and they’re the only big league team -- using the term only in the sense that they are in fact a licensed franchise -- not to have scored 200 runs yet this season. As a team, they’ve only hit 21 more home runs than Christian Yelich alone, who they traded away.
Offensively, the only real threat for the Marlins is catcher Jorge Alfaro, who they received in the J.T. Realmuto trade with Philadelphia. He’s hitting .278/.333/.475 for an .808 OPS with 9 home runs so far. In terms of other names you would recognize, former Brewers farmhand Garrett Cooper is hitting .256/.337/.423 with 4 home runs in 23 games, while Curtis Granderson is hitting .186/.286/.366 with 6 home runs but is still playing almost every day in the outfield, because someone has to.
If you don’t follow the Marlins closely, and we wouldn’t blame you, Lewis Brinson is currently in Triple-A after hitting .197/.247/.263 with 28 strikeouts and 2 walks in 82 plate appearances in April. Now 25 years old, he’s hitting .294/.384/.486 in his 5th partial season at Triple-A.
The only reason they’ve been mildly competitive is their pitching staff, whose 4.44 team ERA ranks 16th in the majors, just behind the Brewers at 4.43. Their 27 quality starts is tied for 6th-best in all of baseball. There’s a chance the Brewers could be in for a few low-scoring, closer-than-comfortable games this week.
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday, June 4th - 6:40 p.m. CDT
Pablo Lopez vs. Chase Anderson
The 23-year-old Lopez is in his second season and carries a 4.99 ERA after 11 starts, although his FIP of 4.08 says he’s been unlucky. He’s largely a sinker specialist, throwing his 93.5 mph fastball almost 60% of the time and still inducing a groundball rate of 50%. He’s increased his strikeout rate from just 18.6% last year to 22.7% this year.
Wednesday, June 5th - 6:40 p.m. CDT
Sandy Alcantara vs. Jimmy Nelson
Alcantara had a 3.23 ERA in May, but that may have been a bit flukey, considering he only struck out 19 and walked 16 in 30.2 innings. One of the main pieces the Marlins got back from the Cardinals for Marcell Ozuna, Alcantara threw a 2-hit complete game shutout against the Mets on May 19th and is coming off a start in which he threw 6 scoreless innings, albeit against an equally woeful offense in the San Francisco Giants. He won’t miss many bats and is prone to walks, but has shown a knack for inducing lots of weak contact.
Thursday, June 6th - 1:10 p.m. CDT
Caleb Smith vs. TBD (likely Freddy Peralta)
You can already pencil Smith in as the Marlins’ All-Star this year, and despite the team he plays on, he’s shown legitimate ace material. The lefty has struck out 80 batters in 61 innings and doesn’t allow many baserunners, with a WHIP of 0.97 that’s helped contribute to a 3.10 ERA. He’s an extreme, extreme flyball pitcher, though, with a groundball rate of just 28.6% and 10 home runs allowed this year, which is tough to do when you play your home games in Miami. This could very much be a game where the Brewers strike out 10 times against him — like they did last year — but still hit two or three home runs.
Previous Series
The 2018 Brewers lost 2 of 3 games to the Marlins in Miami last July. Sometimes weird things happen in baseball. The Brewers ended up being fine and tying a franchise record for wins in a season.
Player to Watch
Alfaro is the only player in the Marlins lineup with an OPS over .800, and he and Cooper are the only regulars with an OPS even above .700. Rookie Harold Ramirez is hitting .373/.417/.478 in 72 plate appearances since coming up in mid-May, though, driving in 10 runs in 18 games.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs