Fangraphs has put out the odds of every team in MLB making the playoffs.
The good news: according to the site, the Milwaukee Brewers have a better chance to make the playoffs than the St. Louis Cardinals.
The bad news: the Brewers are less likely to make the playoffs than the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs.
According to Fangraphs the Brewers chances of making the playoffs are a paltry 29.7%. As is the case normally, the Cubs are considered to be frontrunners for the playoffs with odds at 51.9%. The "winners of the offseason" Cincinnati Reds are coming in with a 34.8% chance of making the playoffs. The Cardinals have just a 25.1% chance.
#Brewers at 29% to make playoffs per @fangraphs. https://t.co/yIuK1Ak7ls pic.twitter.com/xEkXmaSe70— Matt Pauley (@MattPauleyOnAir) February 20, 2020
For Brewer Nation this sounds almost as alarming as the PECOTA projection of 79 wins and a fourth place finish for the 2020 season. In fact PECOTA likes the Brewers less than Fangraphs as they place their odds at 20.3%. PECOTA really likes the Reds in the National League Central as they place their odds of making the playoffs at 66.2% followed by the Cubs at 51.5% and the Cardinals at 24.4%.
Las Vegas is not high on Milwaukee either. Right now, Vegas has the Brewers odds of winning the National League Central at 5/1 whereas the Cubs and Cardinals are at 2/1 and the Reds are at 11/4. I guess the take away is that the Milwaukee Brewers are not likely to make the playoffs.
The thing to remember is that prognostication systems are often flawed in their projections when measured against real outcomes. The Fangraphs odds makers have missed on Milwaukee for the past two seasons. For example, prior to the 2019 season, Fangraphs had the Brewers with a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs. Prior to 2018, the odds were 21.2%. For added perspective, the odds for the Chicago Cubs were 95.7% in 2018 and 64.2% in 2019 respectively.
The good thing that comes from being underestimated by the odds makers is that Milwaukee returns to its underdog status even after two straight playoff appearances. That just seems appropriate. Hopefully the Brewers can shock everyone once again in 2020.