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The Garcia decision:


This is perhaps the most fascinating personnel decision happening for the Brewers in a few years.

The Facts:

Garcia is on the last year of his current contract.

There is a mutual option for $12M for one year that would have to be agreed to by the Brewers and Garcia for it to be in effect and Garcia to come back in 2022.

If this agreement doesn't happen, then the Brewers have to pay Garcia an additional $2M.

Garcia will be a Class A or Class B free agent and provide the Brewers with draft compensation either as the signing team's first round pick or a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2.

Garcia's 2022 output .262 .330 .420 and .820 OPS was good for 2.9 WAR (Baseball reference)

Garcia will turn 31 during the next season.

The Brewers options:

1. Decline the mutual option. This would be a very Brewers thing to do. Although the going rate in free agency may be $8M/WAR that isn't the going rate on the Brewers team. They may not be willing to go down the path further with Garcia.

2. Accept the mutual option but let Garcia walk if he doesn't accept. Pay him the $2 if he doesn't resign for $12M for one year with the Brewers.

3. Accept the mutual option and play poker but fold the bluff in the end if Garcia continues towards free agency. When accepting the mutual offer let Garcia know that the team is potentially willing to extend a QO. This positioning may encourage Garcia to also accept the option but more likely, if he wants to stay with the Brewers they would find a figure above $12M and below $18.4M.

4. Decline the option and try to re-negotiate with the willingness to do the QO if necessary. This opens things up to different length of contract options. The Brewer could look to do a three or four year contract.

5. Accept the option and do the QO if necessary. Hope Garcia signs some place else rather than accepts.

I believe the Brewers will actually do number 1. They are up against a number of arbitration cases and have Taylor that can provide some decent innings in Garcia's place. The Brewers tend to clean the slate at the beginning of the off season and then adjust based on the value options before them. The Garcia decision has to be made prior to anything else and the Brewers tend to like more flexibility in the off season.

I would like the Brewers to do number 5. This is Garcia's best year to potentially score a big multi-year salary. I believe he won't accept the option or the QO and put himself out there. And if he does accept the QO than right field is covered. If he doesn't accept, the Brewers get a valuable draft pick.

Who do you think will blink first?