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By The Numbers -- 41 games to go.


There are forty-one games left in the Milwaukee Brewers regular season. I will miss this season when it is done; but for now, let’s look at how things are shaping up – by the numbers.

The Brewers are crushing it with a .612 win percentage. If they keep up this rate of winning they will win 99.14 games. That is really good - especially somehow winning the .14 game!

What if the Reds or Cardinals get hot and the Brewers falter? (Remember the Reds have an amazingly easy schedule the rest of the way.) It would take a lot of hot and falter. If the Reds win above the Brewers current winning percentage of .612 than they will end up with 90 wins. If that happens, the Brewers could still end up tied with the Reds by winning just 16 out of their next 41 games. If the Brewers manage just above .500 record the rest of the way, the Reds would need to go 30 - 10 for a winning percentage of over 75%.

The Reds still have a chance; but they need a huge melt down by a Brewers team built on pitching that has been consistently very good throughout the year. And the Reds need a lot of help from the Brewers opponents as well.

The most likely place that help could come from is the St. Louis Cardinals. Although the Cardinals are 61 -58 and a fringe contender their schedule makes them an important factor for the rest of the year. The Cardinals play the Brewers eleven more times after last night’s loss. If the Cardinals go 9 -2 in those games against the Brewers than there is a little glimmer of hope for the Reds and maybe a tiny dream of a hope for the Cardinals. If you look at just those games and their potential effect on the race as a subsect than you can see the impact:

Wins

Current

Head to Head

Total Wins

Brewers

74

2

76

Cardinals

61

9

70

And if the Reds win 9 games while the Cardinals are playing the Brewers that brings them to within three of the division lead. None of this seems likely as the team from St. Louis is falling like a house of cards when faced with this challenge.

The best way for the Brewers to make sure this doesn’t turn into more of a pennant race is to keep taking care of business against the Cardinals. And that could be why the starting pitching was lined up like it was for this first series with the team that eats babies.