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By the Numbers -- 31 games to go:




Not that much is changing when you look at the Central Division race. The Brewers have an 8.5 game lead on the Reds and a 12 game lead on the Cardinals. The Brewers are 5-5 over their last ten games and the Reds are 6-4 so the lead isn't growing, but time is waning on any hope the Reds have of capturing a division titles.

The Brewers have 31 games left. If they go one game over .500 for the rest of the season than they will end up with 95 wins. For the Reds to win 95 they will need to go 24 -6. That is really hard for any team to do. The Reds have a very easy schedule, but a 24-6 run would be better than any Craigtember we have experienced.

If the Brewers maintain their .603 winning percentage than they end up with 97.7 wins. (It may be that a win over the Cubs really only counts as. 7/10 of a win these days.) The Reds would need to go 27 -3 over that period to tie. We are at that point of the season where the Brewers have reasonable control over their own destiny.

Considering their schedule, a more feasible win percentage for a hot Reds team is .700. The Reds would end up with 91 wins. That is likely going to get them a wildcard slot. To tie for the best record in the division at 91 wins, the Brewers would have to go 11 - 20. The Brewers losing twenty games in a thirty-one game stretch is pretty unlikely.

This thing isn't wrapped up; but if the Brewers can at least win four out of the next seven against the Giants and Cardinals, than the Brewers should be able to begin thinking more about managing workload with their September call ups than winning a specific game or series.