FanPost

Why the NL Central Race Might Tighten Up...

By the Numbers:

Well, this is a strange position for the Brewers. They have a sizable lead in the division with 53 games left. In past years, looking at the numbers it was always about how much better than their current win percentage the Brewers would need to be in order to make the playoffs. This year it is, "How bad can they play and still hang on?"

So lets take a look. Currently the Brewers are 65-44 with a .596 winning percentage. If they keep winning at this rate than they will end up at 96 wins. Wow!

The only other team in contention for the Central is the Reds at 57-51. If the Reds win .596 percent of their remaining games they will end up with 89 wins. So if the Reds win at a pace which the Brewers have maintained so far this season, than the Brewers only need a record of 24 – 29 to win the division.

If the Brewers go one game over .500 over the next 53 games than the Reds would need to go 35 – 19 or a winning percentage of 72% to tie the Brewers at 92 wins. This isn’t impossible. Neither is the potential that the Brewers could perform below .500. Teams go into funks and/or get hot for a month or more at a time.

Some of that usually has to do with who are the opponents during that time. When we look at records of the remaining opponents the potential for a Reds comeback seems more plausible.

Games Left

5 or more games over .500

Within 5 games of .500

Cubs and other losers

Brewers

16

19

18

Reds

6

13

35

The Reds may very likely have the easiest schedule in the major leagues from this date forward. (I'm to lazy to figure this out.) They get the benefit of playing bad teams after they have already traded off many players that have any value at all.

The Brewers, don’t necessarily have a difficult schedule; but they do have 16 games against contenders while the Reds have only 6. If the Brewers don’t fair so well in those extra ten games against good opponents, and the Reds stack up wins against the Cubs and Pirates, this becomes a very close race.