FanPost

It's Time to Stop Sand-Bagging the NL Cy Young Favorite

There's a clear-cut favorite to win this year's National League Cy Young - it's Corbin Burnes.

With apologies to the likes of Max Scherzer or Zach Wheeler, there just isn’t a better Cy Young resume in the National League this year than that of Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes. Lots of names have been dubbed "the favorite" besides the young Brewers righty this year, but it’s time to stop propping up "good", "very good" and "great" seasons and realize that Burnes' 2021 has been "elite" - and that distinction matters.

In the first half of the season Burnes was overshadowed by Jacob DeGrom – who was making a serious run at Bob Gibson’s 1968 ERA mark – and in the second half, it’s been the likes of Walker Buehler, Scherzer and Wheeler getting most of the national attention. Burnes, despite all he has achieved, has never really been talked about as the most deserving pitcher - but statistically, the lack of recognition doesn't add up.

Over the full span of the 2021 season, by almost any metric you want to pick, the best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball has been Burnes.

He wowed in April by setting an MLB record for consecutive strikeouts without issuing a walk (53) to start a season. He continued a sublime start by matching teammate Freddy Peralta's franchise best 11-game streak of at least 7 Ks (also set this year) with an 11-game run of his own. In August, Burnes tied the all-time MLB mark for consecutive strikeouts in a game with 10-straight against the Cubs. As we've approached the finish line, the historic notes haven't stopped. Burnes pitched the first eight innings of MLB’s record setting 9th no-hitter this season - Milwaukee’s second no-hitter in team history. And in his last start against the Mets, Burnes posted his 14th start of the season with at least nine strikeouts with one walk or less - another MLB record.

All of that - and more - has rolled up into a pitcher who has dominated opposing lineups in ways we haven’t really seen in this era of modern baseball (since 2000). Burnes has been outstanding in almost every facet of pitching: limiting hits, walks, homeruns and striking out more than his fair share of batters.

As of today, Corbin Burnes leads all of MLB (not just the NL) in Adjusted ERA (ERA+), FIP, HR/9, K/9, SO/W and fWAR. He ranks second in to Scherzer with thin margins in WHIP, ERA and the two are tied in Adjusted Pitching Wins.

Since 2000, Burnes’ 2021 season ranks among the Top-100 in the following statistical categories (not including the shortened 2020 season):

  • FIP = Best
  • Sw-Str% = 2nd Best
  • HR/9 = 4th Best
  • K% = 4th Best
  • K-BB% = 5th Best
  • K/9 = 6th Best
  • ERA- = 17th Best
  • fWAR = 17th Best
  • WHIP = 22nd Best
  • Total Ks = 87th Best

There’s been 1670 qualified starting pitching seasons over this twenty season stretch (again, throwing out 2020) and to be ranked so well in that many categories is amazing. With one more (likely) outing left to go, it’s possible these numbers bounce around a little – but probably not much. Burnes needs just 0.1 fWAR to move into the top-15 most valuable seasons by a SP in that metric over the last 20 years. His 1.56 FIP would be the second best season all-time to Pedro Martinez's 1999 campaign.

So it’s not as if Burnes has managed to put these kinds of numbers up in a 'down' year for pitching. This has been called the 'year of the pitcher' at certain points this season, after all.

The fact that Burnes has excelled across the board in a season dominated by pitching, is what is truly remarkable. It’s not just the strikeouts as I think most people outside of Milwaukee tend to believe. Burnes strikes a lot of guys out, sure. But he also throws a high volume of strikes, avoids walks and keeps the ball in the park at a near-historic rate.

Comparing Burnes to Scherzer this season and the last Cy Young winners from 2018 and 2019, we can start to appreciate how all-around elite Burnes has been this season. It's not often you see guys perform exceptional across the board:

MLB Ranks (League Rank in Parenthesis)

Player

ERA

ERA+

WHIP

FIP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

Adj. Pit W

fWAR

2021 Burnes

2 (2)

1 (1)

2 (2)

1 (1)

1 (1)

3 (2)

1 (1)

1 – Tied

1 (1)

2021 Scherzer

1 (1)

2 (2)

1 (1)

5 (3)

4 (2)

5 (4)

24 (17)

1 - Tied

3 (3)

2019 DeGrom

2 (2)

5 (3)

4 (2)

3 (2)

8 (4)

10 (8)

5 (3)

3 (1)

2 (1)

2019 Verlander

4 (2)

2 (2)

1 (1)

9 (4)

4 (2)

5 (2)

49 (17)

1 (1)

5 (3)

2018 DeGrom

1 (1)

1 (1)

3 (2)

1 (1)

5 (2)

7 (3)

1 (1)

1 (1)

1 (1)

2018 Snell

2 (1)

2 (1)

4 (2)

8 (5)

7 (4)

43 (20)

10 (3)

2 (1)

11 (7)

First, what I think stands out is just how good both Burnes and Scherzer have been this year and it does seem a shame only one of these guys can win. But the next thing that really stands out is how well Burnes stacks up against 2018 Jacob DeGrom, which is arguably the best pitching season of the 2010s measure by sabermetrics.

DeGrom’s 2018 season was so good, he managed to secure all but one first-place vote in the balloting despite a 10-9 record. That lone vote, ironically, ended up going to Scherzer. But the magnitude of Degrom's 2018 vote totals seemd as if they finally banished the conventional wisdom for the voters who historically favored things like W/L record and counting stats vs sabermetrics, rate stats and WAR.

It seems very likely Degrom’s ’18 win might have helped pave the way for Burnes in 2021.

The other thing that simply can’t be glossed over, is that Burnes actually does have a very good chance of leading the NL in the "Three True Outcomes" pitching categories of K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 – highlighted above. He has healthy margins in K/9 and HR/9 and only trails Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela in BB/9 by 0.069. He would likely need to avoid a walk in his final outing and have Senzatela issue at least one to do it, but given what we’ve seen from Burnes this year in terms of command – this really doesn’t feel that far-fetched.

Often times we tend to think of the 3TO's as more of hitter statistics, but for pitchers it is very much a reflection of the three things they have the most direct control over in a game. To be as exceptional as Burnes has been at all three, is truly rare.

Where guys like Verlander or Scherzer have struggled with HRs or Snell and 2019 DeGrom have posted higher walk rates, Burnes has posted nearly top league marks in each. So the fact that Burnes is even this close to winning a "3TO Triple Crown" is an achievement in and of itself – but if he actually does it, it would be unprecedented.

You see, no starting pitcher in MLB history (yeah, all 100+ years of it) has ever led their league in all three of these categories in the same season. In fact, only two pitchers have ever managed to lead their league in these three categories at any point in their careers – and the two guys that did it (Walter Johnson and Mort Cooper) pitched in the pre-integration era. So take those achievements as you will.

Anytime you start talking about doing something no one has ever done across a full 162-game season, it bears special attention. When you talk about doing in a single season that 98% of Hall of Famers haven't managed across their entire careers?

That's just impossible to dismiss.

Since 1948 in the NL, a qualified starting pitcher has only managed to lead the league two of these 'per 9' categories five times and all but one of them went on to win the Cy Young. The closest to completing the trifecta was Greg Maddux in 1995 who led in BB/9 and HR/9 but finished 7th in K/9.

In the American League, Pedro came ridiculously close. In both the previously mentioned 1999, but also 2000, seasons where he led in K/9 and HR/9 but finished 2nd both times in BB/9. In ’99 he missed completing the trifecta by literally one walk. The 1999-2000 stretch by Pedro has been ranked as one of the best two-year stretches in MLB history – so it’s no small feat for Burnes to be mentioned in the same breath.

But even if Burnes fails to win the first ever "3TO Triple Crown", he will be the closest anyone has gotten in 20+ years. His margins in HR/9 and K/9 are healthy enough Burnes will almost certainly be the fifth different NL starting pitcher (Maddux did it twice) post-integration to win two 'per 9' crowns in a single campaign. And he'll be the closest since Pedro in 2000 to winning all three.

When you roll all of this up, Burnes' quality of innings pitched is practically unequalled over the last two decades of professional baseball. Frankly, it ranks right up there among any pitcher ever – albeit in fewer innings that what guys used to throw "back in the day". He’s been Scherzer’s equal in ERA and WHIP while posting near-historic ‘per 9s’ plus having his fair share of MLB history-making performances on his resume.

And while I do think that the volume of innings matters to a degree, I don't think the delta this season is significant enough to tip the scales away from Burnes overall resume. Scherzer is on pace for about 180 innings and Burnes looking like he’ll just clip 170. That's not nothing, but it's certainly not enough of something to wash the rest of what Burnes has accomplished.

For Milwaukee fans, Burnes’ 2021 is likely the best season by a Brewer we’re likely to see in our lifetimes. Heck, it could be among the 5-6 best seasons by a pitcher we’ll see in our lifetimes, period. This level of dominance over a full 162 game season just doesn’t happen often. And coming off a shortened season with a guy who almost washed out of the league in 2019, it seems borderline impossible.

Take the names and teams out of it, and try to tell me that the numbers in the sabermetric era don't support Burnes. His campaign has been elite, it's been historic and it might just end up being unprecedented. If he loses the award, Burnes could easily go down as the best pitcher to NOT win the award - which is another way of saying the vote would be a joke.

Brewers fans probably have set their eyes beyond individual awards at the moment. And rightly so, given the overall strength of their team. But given that the Crew won't play a meaningful game again until October 8th, its as good a time as any for the Milwaukee Faithful to stump hard for what would be their first ever Cy Young winner as a National League team. We need to let everybody know.

Max Scherzer has been great. Zach Wheeler has been really, really good. But the 2021 NL Cy Young race isn't really all that close. There's a clear-cut favorite:

Corbin Burnes.

EDIT - Julio Urias is now the biggest threat to Burnes in BB/9 with a 1.807 mark, chasing Burnes' 1.800.

Last night Senzatela fell off the NL's qualified pitcher boards, so Burnes actually does lead in all three 'per 9' categories. Senzatela needs 6 innings in his last start to reach 162 and would need to avoid walking 1 batter (if Burnes walks none or 2 batters if Burnes walks 1 in his final start).