FanPost

A Very 2021 xwZaRP+ Post

Been a while, hey? It is finally time for the long-awaited return of xwZaRP+. For those unaware, I created xwZaRP+ three years ago in an effort to find the true value of hitters in today's game, and I have been doing annual updates ever since. With so many stats out there, both old-school and new, it can be difficult for even the most dedicated of fans to know what to think. My aim is to create a stat for everyone to know and enjoy, and hopefully use for their own purposes. To start out, I use Gregg Zaun's Run Production formula, best known as ZaRP. Remind us what that is, Gregg:

Thanks Gregg! Now you all know how much I love ZaRP, but I am going to take this further by weighing the results of each plate appearance in order to find the Zaun Run (ZaR) environment. This is how wZaRP is created, so let's take a look at the new formula for 2021:

Terrific! The next step is to create ZaRP park factors to scale ZaR up or down. It's easier to ZaRP in better hitter's parks yadda yadda yadda you get it. Here are the updates to each ballpark. I'm also going to use a park factor of 1 for the Blue Jays games played in Florida and Buffalo because we don't quite have enough data to create trustworthy park factors for them.

Colorado 1.357
Boston 1.142
Kansas City 1.115
Arizona 1.113
Atlanta 1.066
Cincinnati 1.061
Cleveland 1.041
Toronto 1.039
Detroit 1.029
Washington 1.027
Minnesota 1.025
Chicago Cubs 1.019
Milwaukee 1.002
Baltimore 0.995
Pittsburgh 0.988
NY Yankees 0.971
Texas 0.968
Philadelphia 0.964
LA Angels 0.958
San Francisco 0.953
Chicago Sox 0.941
San Diego 0.926
Houston 0.920
Oakland 0.913
St. Louis 0.905
Seattle 0.894
Miami 0.890
LA Dodgers 0.877
Tampa Bay 0.875
NY Mets 0.844

Finally, now that we have all of the necessary stuff, it's time to create xwZaRP+. Just like any other + stat, 100 is average, greater than 100 is better, less than 100 is worse. Here is a leaderboard of the top 100 players with 500 plate appearances:

Name xwZaRP+ wZaRP ZaRP
Fernando Tatis Jr. 149 0.299 1.185
Kyle Tucker 141 0.283 1.036
Shohei Ohtani 139 0.280 1.013
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 139 0.280 1.155
Tyler O'Neill 138 0.277 0.978
Bryce Harper 135 0.271 1.064
Pete Alonso 134 0.270 0.908
Yordan Álvarez 134 0.269 1.132
Brandon Lowe 133 0.267 1.054
Nick Castellanos 132 0.266 1.167
Marcus Semien 131 0.265 1.062
Max Muncy 131 0.264 1.063
Trea Turner 131 0.264 1.054
Matt Olson 131 0.264 1.109
Aaron Judge 131 0.263 1.000
Salvador Perez 130 0.262 1.000
Teoscar Hernandez 128 0.257 1.231
Nolan Arenado 127 0.256 0.968
Jared Walsh 127 0.255 0.965
Mitch Haniger 126 0.255 1.089
Paul Goldschmidt 126 0.254 1.076
Adam Duvall 126 0.253 0.973
Javier Baez 125 0.253 0.986
Joey Votto 125 0.252 1.054
Jose Ramirez 125 0.252 1.171
Jose Altuve 125 0.251 1.158
Giancarlo Stanton 125 0.251 0.906
Cedric Mullins 123 0.249 0.755
Jorge Polanco 123 0.247 1.066
Austin Riley 122 0.246 1.031
Rafael Devers 121 0.244 1.128
Manny Machado 121 0.244 1.111
Brandon Crawford 121 0.244 1.051
Ryan Mountcastle 120 0.242 0.924
Will Smith 120 0.242 0.878
Avisail Garcia 120 0.241 0.926
Nelson Cruz 120 0.241 0.950
Justin Turner 120 0.241 0.974
Mookie Betts 119 0.240 1.049
Bryan Reynolds 119 0.239 1.000
Carlos Correa 119 0.239 1.149
Bo Bichette 118 0.237 1.220
Austin Meadows 117 0.237 1.113
Adolis García 117 0.236 0.913
Tim Anderson 117 0.236 1.122
Hunter Renfroe 116 0.234 1.069
Freddie Freeman 116 0.233 1.082
Austin Hays 115 0.232 0.931
Kyle Seager 115 0.232 0.874
José Abreu 115 0.232 1.138
Josh Bell 115 0.231 0.944
Ozzie Albies 115 0.231 1.147
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 114 0.230 0.887
Willy Adames 114 0.230 0.893
Juan Soto 114 0.230 1.172
J.D. Martinez 114 0.229 1.101
Jesus Aguilar 114 0.229 0.916
Randy Arozarena 114 0.229 1.014
Kris Bryant 113 0.228 0.931
Jake Cronenworth 113 0.227 0.947
Mike Yastrzemski 113 0.227 0.871
Yuli Gurriel 112 0.227 1.042
Eduardo Escobar 112 0.226 0.952
Jazz Chisholm 112 0.225 0.847
Ty France 111 0.224 0.921
Jonathan Villar 111 0.224 0.613
Starling Marte 111 0.224 1.100
Michael Brantley 111 0.223 0.884
Miguel Sano 110 0.221 0.837
Joey Gallo 109 0.220 0.843
Francisco Lindor 109 0.219 0.928
Chris Taylor 109 0.219 0.980
Xander Bogaerts 108 0.218 1.014
Randal Grichuk 108 0.217 0.792
Jean Segura 108 0.217 0.916
Josh Donaldson 108 0.217 0.881
Dansby Swanson 107 0.216 0.869
Anthony Rizzo 107 0.216 0.794
Dylan Carlson 107 0.215 0.846
Andrew McCutchen 107 0.215 0.910
Joey Wendle 106 0.213 0.853
J.T. Realmuto 106 0.212 0.896
Trey Mancini 105 0.212 0.864
Jonathan Schoop 105 0.212 0.942
Wil Myers 105 0.211 0.699
Luis Urias 104 0.210 0.860
C.J. Cron 104 0.210 0.944
Ian Happ 103 0.207 0.703
Andrew Benintendi 103 0.206 0.888
Jeimer Candelario 102 0.206 0.846
Eugenio Suarez 102 0.206 0.821
Miguel Rojas 102 0.205 0.795
Jonathan India 101 0.204 0.973
José Iglesias 100 0.202 0.759
Jed Lowrie 100 0.202 0.791
Matt Chapman 100 0.202 0.795
Eric Hosmer 99 0.200 0.702
Trent Grisham 99 0.200 0.818
Tommy Edman 99 0.200 0.855
Nathaniel Lowe 99 0.199 0.822

And here is how our beloved 2021 Milwaukee Brewers fared:

Name xwZaRP+ wZaRP ZaRP
Avisail Garcia 120 0.241 0.926
Willy Adames 114 0.230 0.893
Manny Pina 113 0.228 0.627
Tyrone Taylor 113 0.227 0.688
Eduardo Escobar 112 0.226 0.952
Jacob Nottingham 107 0.216 0.533
Kolten Wong 105 0.212 0.914
Luis Urias 104 0.210 0.860
Rowdy Tellez 103 0.208 0.557
Lorenzo Cain 98 0.198 0.872
Luke Maile 97 0.194 0.600
Omar Narvaez 95 0.191 0.748
Billy McKinney 93 0.187 0.431
Travis Shaw 91 0.183 0.595
Daniel Vogelbach 90 0.182 0.484
Jace Peterson 87 0.174 0.649
Pablo Reyes 86 0.173 0.269
Christian Yelich 84 0.169 0.957
Orlando Arcia 81 0.163 0.583
Keston Hiura 73 0.148 0.517
Jackie Bradley Jr. 66 0.134 0.463
Daniel Robertson 65 0.130 0.245
Tim Lopes 34 0.068 0.143