Beating the Theorem -- 2022 style

The Theorem.

It is supposed to tell us how many baseball games a team should be winning based on runs for vs runs against. Some feel it is a more statistically accurate portrayal of how good a baseball team is than their actual record.

Last year the Theorem and the Brewers actual win total were in agreement that the Brewers should have won 95 games.

In every other year since 2015 the Brewers have out performed, in wins, their expected wins based on runs for vs runs against.

Beating the theorem is one of those small market ways to beat conventional wisdom and win more games than some may think the team actually should.

There are different theories on how to do this, but basically a team beats the theorem by winning close games and not worrying if a loss is by 4 runs or 14 runs when losing.

The Brewers do this through pitching that keeps games close, defense that doesn't blow leads, and a top notch A bullpen to close out those close games. They also tend to be ok with trying different pitchers during garbage time. Sometimes these pitchers become A bullpen contributors. Sometimes they just inflate that run differential and lose their jobs later in the season.

After 20 games the Brewers have scored 3 more runs than they have given up. The theorem believes that they should be 10 -10 on the season. They are 13 -7. Already three games ahead of the theorem. Beating the theorem and leading the division is the Brewers way of doing business.

At different times during the season, whenever I feel like it, I will check back in on how the Brewers are doing against the theorem. In 2019 they beat their expected win total by eight games. I believe if they do that again, this could be a 100 win team.