Winning The Divison -- By the numbers:

I know this may seem rather optimistic at the moment but the Brewers do have a path to winning the division.

Lets first look at the race as it stands today:

The Cardinals have a 2 game lead on the Brewers with a record of 63- 51. The Cardinals also own the tie breaker -- wins against the other team. So the Brewers need to win the division outright.

The Cardinals have one thing going in their favor:

The Cardinals have an easier schedule than the Brewers. Cardinals games left include 13 games against winning teams. 35 games against losing teams. And 0 games against teams within 8 games of .500. That is playing a lot of teams that weren't good for most of the season and probably got worse at the trade deadline. The Brewers play sixteen games against winning teams, thirty-one against losing teams and two against teams near .500. Still a favorable schedule but not as easy as the Cardinals.

The Brewers have one thing in their favor:


But it is going to have to be quite the Craigtember to make it happen. If we assume the Cardinals will hum along approximately as they have been they will win and additional 28 game with a win percentage of .583 the rest of the way. They would end up with 91 wins for the year.

For the Brewers to overcome this, they would need to win 31 of their next 48 games for a .654 winning percentage and they would end up with 92 wins and win the division.

Doable? Sure! Why not.

Series by series this is how it could happen:

Aug 16 - Aug 18 Dodgers: Win 2 out of 3 (splitting the 4 game series)

August 19 - Aug 21 Cubs: Win 2 out of 3

August 22 - Aug 24 Dodgers: Win 1 our of 3

Aug 26 - Aug 28 Cubs: Win 2 out of 3

Do the Brewers play anyone other than the Dodgers and Cubs?

Aug 29 - Aug 31 Pittsburgh: Win 2 out of 3

Sept. 1 - Sept 4 Arizona: Win 3 of 4 (The snakes are really bad. I could actually see the Brewers having a 6 to 8 game winning streak in late August and early September.)

Sept 5 - Sept 7 Rockies win 2 out of 3

Sept 8 - Sept 8 Giants split a double header

Sept 9 - Sept 11 Reds win 2 out of 3

Sept 13 - Sept 14 split 2 with the Cards

Sept 16 - Sept 18 Yankees win 1 out of 3

Sept 19 - Sept 21 Mets win 1 out of 3

(It is possible that either or both of the NY teams may not have as much to play for so things might go better than 2 -4 against them.)

Sept 22 - Sept 26 Reds win 3 out of 4

Sept 27 - Sept 28 win both games at home against the Cardinals. (This may be crucial by this time.)

Sept 29 - Oct 2 Marlins Split 4 games 2 -2

October 3 - Oct 5 Snakes -- Win three out of three

This is possible. It might seem like a long shot today, but Craigtember is coming. A good 10 game winning streak could really turn this race around.

Time for a play off run.