Making the Playoffs -- September 19 -- By the Numbers

The Brewers remain on pace for continuing their string of playoff appearances. At this point in the season looking at the loss column becomes key. In the last week, the Brewers have remained 2 games behind the Padres in the lost column but have moved from 3.5 games to 2 games behind the Phillies.

Fortunately for the Brewers, they only need to catch one of the two teams. (Since the Brewers lose the tie breaker with each of these teams, they have to finish with fewer losses so they are really 3 games behind each team.) The Brewer didn't get any closer in the standings but they are now trailing two teams not one by those two games. According to Baseball Reference the Brewers odds of getting into the Playoffs increased by 6.1% to 36%. This is good.

How did the Brewers do in relation to projections made last week:

Projected Actual
Date Opponent Pitcher W L W L
Sept. 13 At St. Louis Bullpen 1 1
Sept. 14 At St. Louis Burnes 1 1
Sept. 15 Off
Sept. 16 NY Yankees Woodruff 1 1
Sept. 17 NY Yankees Houser 1 1
Sept. 18 NY Yankees Alexander
1 1
Sept. 19 N.Y Mets Burnes 1
Sept. 20 N.Y Mets TBD
Sept. 21 N.Y Mets Woodruff 1
Sept. 22 At Cincy Houser 1
Sept. 23 At Cincy Ashby 1
Sept. 24 At Cincy Burnes 1
Sept. 25 At Cincy TBD 1
Sept. 26 Off
Sept. 27 St. Louis Woodruff 1
Sept. 28 St. Louis Houser 1
Sept. 29 Miami Burnes 1
Sept. 30 Miami Ashby/Peralta 1
Oct. 1 Miami 1
Oct. 2 Miami Woodruff 1
Oct. 3 Arizona Houser 1
Oct. 4 Arizona Burnes 1
Oct. 5 Arizona Peralta 1
16 5

This projection is for the Brewers to win 91 games which should give the Brewers a very good chance to take a wild card spot. The Brewers have the 21st toughest schedule remaining and only 5 of 16 games against playoff contenders. The Padres have the 6th toughest strength of schedule with 9 games against playoff contending teams. (3 each with the Dodgers, Cardinals and White Sox.) The Phillies have the 12th hardest schedule with 9 games remaining against playoff contenders. (3 against Houston, 4 against Atlanta and two against the Blue Jays)

It very likely will take 90 wins to make the playoffs and perhaps only 89. The Padres have shown signs of getting hot but have a very difficult schedule. The Phillies aren't hot and have to overcome a long playoff drought.

My prediction: The Brewers end up with the second wildcard spot with more wins than either the Padres or Phillies.