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Making the Playoffs --- September 26 -- By the Numbers

How did the Brewers do in their quest for the playoffs over the last week as opposed to game by game projections:


Projected Win Projected Loss Actual Win

Projected Loss

Sept. 19 N.Y Mets 1
1
Sept. 20 N.Y Mets 1
1
Sept. 21 N.Y Mets 1
1
Sept. 22 At Cincy 1
1
Sept. 23 At Cincy 1
1
Sept. 24 At Cincy 1
1
Sept. 25 At Cincy 1
1

Not so well actually. In the middle of May going 4-3 in a week would be fine. But for the Brewers, with a chance to make up some ground over the last week, 4-3 wasn't good enough. Fortunately the Phillies (3-3) and the Padres (4-2) didn't blow the Brewers out of the race.

But the margin of error becomes even tighter. The Phillies have to lose three more games than the Brewers lose over their last nine games. If the Phillies go 7-3 the Brewers would have to be perfect. If the Phillies go a reasonable 6-4 during this stretch they end up with 89 wins.

How can the Brewers get to 90 wins:

Projected
Win Loss
Sept. 26 Off
Sept. 27 St. Louis Houser 1
Sept. 28 St. Louis Woodruff 1
Sept. 29 Miami Burnes 1
Sept. 30 Miami Lauer 1
Oct. 1 Miami Peralta/Ashby 1
Oct. 2 Miami Houser 1
Oct. 3 Arizona Woodruff 1
Oct. 4 Arizona Burnes 1
Oct. 5 Arizona Bullpen 1
8 1

By winning a lot of games against bad teams the rest of the season and splitting with the Cardinals the Brewers reach 90 wins and have a good chance of making the playoffs.

Can they do this?

The Brewers almost swept the Reds (If not for a Hiura's leg being in the wrong place at the wrong time) and the Marlins are perhaps an even worse team. The Snakes, the Brewers last opponent this season, may hopefully be shutting some starting pitchers down by the time the Brewers face them. And the Brewers lauded rotation is back in tact and pitching well down the stretch.

The issue is that the Phillies remaining schedule may not be much harder than the Brewers. They finish against the Astros, but the Astros really have nothing left to play for in the regular season. Their second to last series is four games against a bad Nationals team. Starting Tuesday they play a Cubs team in Chicago that is actually playing some good baseball. The Cubs send out Stroman and Wesneski against the Phillies Wheeler and Nola in the first two games of the series. Go Cubbies! Ugh... I feel sick.