The Brewers beat their anticipated win total by one game in 2022. In 2021, they beat their expected win total by 2. In 2019 they beat their win expectancy by a magnificent 8 games. Overall, MLB baseball was less lucky 2022 with teams actually winning on total five fewer games than expected.

The Baseball Pythagorean Theorem predicts win loss record based on runs scored vs runs given up. Although it is great in theory, small market teams (including the Brewers) have often been able to beat the theorem and win more games than expected. Some may consider this luck, but when done year over year, there is probably something more to it.

An analysis of the biggest winners and losers against the theorem can shed some light on how best to beat the Theorem in 2023. Among teams with a winning record, here are the three biggest winners and losers and the Brewers.

Teams that beat the theorem generally had greater success in one run games and definitely had greater success in extra-inning games. (A separate analysis of extra innings strategy would be an interesting follow up to this.) The team that didn't have vastly better outcomes in these areas was Baltimore. Lets look at them first:

Baltimore beat the theorem the old-fashioned way. Making sure they won games that they lead late.

As you can see, this is also how the Brewers grossly underperformed. Baltimore lead the league in the percentage of save opportunities that they converted. Winning games that the team is leading is the old school way of beating the theorem. But if financial limitations limit a small market teams ability to do this better than their larger market competitors than teams have looked for other ways. (But the team still has to at least average save percentage.)

This leads us to Cleveland and San Diego. The other way that small market teams have beaten the theorem has been defense. But the league seems to have caught on to this. There doesn't seem to be the same efficiency in simply focusing on defense so there is less potential impact of defensive runs saved:

If defensive efficiency isn't the other key, beyond save percentage, for beating the theorem, what is? This leads us specifically to Cleveland. What did Cleveland do well? They not only engaged in good defense; but on offense they struck out less frequently and moved runners forward.

In addition to the strike out and sacrifice hits the Guardians also were among the top teams in stolen bases and stolen base efficiency. The Padre's also were among the tops in sacrifice hits and stolen base success.

I believe these two teams, through a focus on moving runners forward and not striking out in key at bats late in games, have found a new efficiency in how to beat the theorem. The runner starting on second base in extra innings has helped to create this efficiency. The larger bases and new rules regarding pick off attempts will further this efficiency.

The standard way of beating the theorem will always exist: have the best late inning pitching. Other opportunities will continue to be a factor of finding key strategies or approaches which can create advantages in late and close games. In 2022, those were not striking out and advancing the runner. I believe the Brewers have taken notice and are adjusting their roster and will be adjusting their approach to try to again be a leader in wins of expected category.

This isn't to mean that the three true outcomes are not still critical in building a baseball team, but that in certain situations, being able to achieve a reduction in strike outs and advancing runners may be just as important.