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MLB Draft Lottery Brewers-Related Observations


The MLB draft lottery, held at the Winter Meetings, went nearly as well as it could have for the Brewers. As a playoff team, they were not in the lottery, but overall the lottery results were beneficial nonetheless. Here's why:

With Cleveland and Cincinnati moving up (what's in the water in Ohio?), it bumped the Cards (5th to 7th) and Pirates (8th to 10th) down. Clearly it would have been better had another team such as Detroit or Seattle jumped up instead of Cincinnati (who now have the #2 pick instead of #14), but there are other results that helped the Brewers in addition to the Pirates and Cards both getting pushed down.

The Brewers, having lost in the wild card round, were scheduled to pick 20th based on their 2023 record, playoff finish, and revenue-sharing status; however, because the Mets, Padres, and Yankees were all above the third competitive balance threshold, their picks were all dropped 10 spots lower in the draft. Had any of them been selected in one of the six lottery spots, the penalty would have been applied to their second pick next year.

As it is, this moved the Brewers up to #17 in the draft. The jump from #20 to #17 represents about a $423K increase in slot value based on 2023 slot values, so given the annual inflation of slot money, likely the Brewers will have an additional $450K or so to spend on their draft picks next year due to the ill-advised spending sprees of those three teams and their lack of lottery luck - that's a not-insignificant amount that could help the Brewers sign 1 or 2 additional prospects who otherwise might choose college ball. Meanwhile, the drops by the Cards and Pirates cost them nearly $900K and just over $500K, respectively, in pool money. It's unfortunate the Reds gained so much (probably about $4.4M), but for the Brewers as a non-playoff team to pick up extra bonus pool money, it was a good day in my book.

What are your thoughts?